Wednesday, March 11, 2009

PLO exercise, pt. 2

I meant to include this hand in the previoust post, so here goes.

Six players are left at the final table of last night's Skills Game. The cash bubble has burst but the prize money jumps are small at this point, the only prize of any consequence is climbing all the way to a first place finish and a ToC seat.

You are short-stacked in the big blind with [Ts 2h Td Kc]. The cutoff opens for 3 times the big blind (6K) and the button and small blind fold. Do you take a stand here or not? Some considerations:

1) You have no fold equity, since villain is getting a great price to call such a small re-raise; and
2) If you put your last 9K in the pot you are probably going to have to improve to survive; and
3) Can I find a better spot to put my stack in during the next orbit of hands once I pass through the blinds?

What is your estimate of villain's hand range? What percentage of the time does he have an overpair to your tens, and how often does he have live suits to make flushes and/or connectors to make straights? Do you have any blockers against those types of hands? How likely is your hand to improve postflop?

These are some questions worth asking in the late stages of a PLO tourney. Here is how the hand played out ... as the villain actually found himself in a virtual coinflip as the cards lay:

Seat 1: Second Place Guy (63,036)
Seat 2: Villain (30,470)
Seat 4: Third Place Guy (34,764)
Seat 5: Fifth Place Guy (13,878)
Seat 6: Hero (9,318)
Seat 7: Chip Leader (100,534)
SB posts the small blind of 1,000
Hero posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
CL folds
2P folds
Villain raises to 6,000
3P folds
5P folds
Hero raises to 9,318, and is all in
Villain calls 3,318
Hero shows [Ts 2h Td Kc]
Villain shows [Kd 9s 6h Ah]
*** FLOP *** [5d Tc 6s]
*** TURN *** [5d Tc 6s] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [5d Tc 6s 9c] [3h]
Hero shows three of a kind, Tens
Villain shows two pair, Nines and Sixes
Hero wins the pot (19,636) with three of a kind, Tens


BWoP said...

1. Hand range depends on how active the player in the cutoff has been previously. Raises from the cutoff tend to get about as much respect as a raise on the button.

2. BB's decision depends on how short the BB is. During the WSOP, I was pretty deep in the $1,500 PLO event. I think about 14 spots out of the money. I could have tried to cockroach to squeak into the money as some people would have done, but I knew that was going to be dicey enough as it was. I jammed with a not-so-stellar hand. So be it. I knew I needed chips to have a fighting chance. I took my chance. I'd do it again in a heartbeat.

3. You have to win the coin flips. If you're afraid of flipping in the first place, you might as well stay home. (Particularly when you are getting short.)

4. If the cash jumps are inconsequential at this point, then the true goal is to win the tournament. Given F-Train's stack at the time, everyone else at the table knew they had to accumulate to even have a chance.

5. From my perspective, BB would look at this as the perfect double up or go home possibility, given that you are pot committed with your raise and BB's stack.

Shrike said...

I agree with everything you say, CK. I have been running numbers, though, based on ranges and I simply think KTT2 does poorly vs. CO's range (since I know what mine was, heh) since I was not opening frequently nor opening with weak trash. BB would have had 4 BBs left if he folded BB and upcoming SB. In BB's spot I would have likely tried to get it in with some first-in vig ...