This hand caught my eye on Poker News as I followed the Main Event coverage yesterday. I didn't realize it was such a donkament at this stage, as 28 players were still playing at this stage of the tournament ...
Buchman Opens-Ships Three Million
Eric Buchman decided not to make one of his more normal raises, but instead open-shoved slightly over three million into the middle. Jonathan Tamayo asked for a count and when he found out, made the call.
Tamayo tabled JsJh and then the dealer turned over Buchman's hand -- AhTh. The crowd sprung to their feet to watch the action as Tamayo's rail cheered.
The flop was gin for Buchman when it came 9h7h2h. Buchman is rarely emotional, but again slapped his hands together and yelled, "Yes!"
The turn was the 6s which officially ended things. The river completed the board with the 6c and Tamayo sent the chips over.
Reasons why open-shoving a 30 big blind stack like this was a horrible play:
1) There were at least five players with fewer chips at this point;
2) When they lose one more player they will stop the tourney for the night;
3) There is a 100K pay jump once they lose one more player;
4) Making it to Day 8 of the ME will earn you more TV time and sponsorship dollars;
5) You are putting your tournament life at risk if someone wakes up with a better hand.
Can anyone come up with an argument for why this was a good play? Was this the wrong move at the right time, and was Tamayo a spiritual descendant of the Cincinnati Kid up against Buchman's Lancey Howard?
NB. Buchman is currently the chip leader with 14 players remaining.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Get Your Ace Here
And not just any ace: the consensus within major league baseball is that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the big leagues. Yes, Johan Santana has won more Cy Young awards. Yes, Tim Lincecum is a superb young starter. Yes, Zack Greinke is putting up a phenomenal season for the sad-sack Kansas City Royals.
That being said, "Doc" has an unmatched pedigree of effectiveness, stamina, and character. Not only that, he is signed through the end of the 2010 season at a below-market salary of 15.75MM. (Essentially, he's so good he's actually underpaid, which just goes to show you that the average ML player is overpaid.)
And this week, the general manager of the Blue Jays, J.P. Ricciardi, spoke to the media and said that he'd listen to trade offers if teams enquired about Halladay. (Halladay has a full no-trade clause in his contract that he'd have to waive before any deal could be finalized.) And this caused a predictable furor around baseball, even though this isn't anything new. Ricciardi didn't say he was looking to move his best player; he clearly stated that he'd have to be overwhelmed by any trade offer before he'd seriously consider approaching Halladay and asking him to waive his no-trade clause.
So, why should the Jays trade their most popular and irreplaceable player? There are a few reasons why it might be a good idea.
1) Halladay would fetch a mint in young blue-chip prospects. The brain trusts of would-be contenders are fully aware that Halladay is a sure thing; incremental improvements for would-be playoff teams are hard to come by and extremely valuable in financial terms (increased playoff revenue, etc.). As cited above, marginal wins are easily worth 5MM per win; Roy Halladay has an established performance level of 6-7 wins a year, highest in baseball amongst starting pitchers, so he's roughly worth 40-50 MM of prospects before the Jays would give him up. (An early rumour from a source within the St. Louis Cardinals: "Halladay? We'd give (Ricciardi) our minor league system and ask him to circle five names."
NB. If Roy Halladay didn't sign a contract extension with his new team, he would be a Type A free agent and the team that lost him would receive two first round compensation picks: a nice insurance policy softening the cost of trading for him, and they'd still get 1.5 seasons of superlative performance from him in the meantime.
2) The Jays have budget problems in the near future. They currently have two outfielders signed to albtross contracts, which severely hampers their ability to construct their team.
3) The Jays are in the toughest division in baseball. Essentially, unless they can construct one of the two or three best teams in the majors, they have no chance of making the playoffs. This is a huge challenge that cannot be overstated. The Yankees spend so much money on their roster that they are always in contention for the playoffs. The Red Sox are the same. The Rays have built a juggernaut after ten years of top-five draft picks, and even the Orioles have begun to field a very competitive team after many years of mediocrity. The strength of schedule in the AL East is ridiculously high. So, they might have to take a step back (they have been stuck in the 6-10 range recently, which has meant they've only been finishing third or fourth in the division) in order to take two steps forward.
4) The Jays' chief organizational strength is young pitching. If they can continue to churn out young pitchers who can do a credible job, transforming Halladay into some blue-chip hitting prospects (especially a shortstop, a huge organizational weakness), has its appeal. They can't replace Halladay, but they still might be better off from a team-building standpoint without him.
My head can come up with some logical reasons why the Jays should strongly consider trading Roy Halladay if the price is right.
But my heart doesn't care. I hope they can find other solutions to their problems and keep the best pitcher in franchise history right where he belongs.
That being said, "Doc" has an unmatched pedigree of effectiveness, stamina, and character. Not only that, he is signed through the end of the 2010 season at a below-market salary of 15.75MM. (Essentially, he's so good he's actually underpaid, which just goes to show you that the average ML player is overpaid.)
And this week, the general manager of the Blue Jays, J.P. Ricciardi, spoke to the media and said that he'd listen to trade offers if teams enquired about Halladay. (Halladay has a full no-trade clause in his contract that he'd have to waive before any deal could be finalized.) And this caused a predictable furor around baseball, even though this isn't anything new. Ricciardi didn't say he was looking to move his best player; he clearly stated that he'd have to be overwhelmed by any trade offer before he'd seriously consider approaching Halladay and asking him to waive his no-trade clause.
So, why should the Jays trade their most popular and irreplaceable player? There are a few reasons why it might be a good idea.
1) Halladay would fetch a mint in young blue-chip prospects. The brain trusts of would-be contenders are fully aware that Halladay is a sure thing; incremental improvements for would-be playoff teams are hard to come by and extremely valuable in financial terms (increased playoff revenue, etc.). As cited above, marginal wins are easily worth 5MM per win; Roy Halladay has an established performance level of 6-7 wins a year, highest in baseball amongst starting pitchers, so he's roughly worth 40-50 MM of prospects before the Jays would give him up. (An early rumour from a source within the St. Louis Cardinals: "Halladay? We'd give (Ricciardi) our minor league system and ask him to circle five names."
NB. If Roy Halladay didn't sign a contract extension with his new team, he would be a Type A free agent and the team that lost him would receive two first round compensation picks: a nice insurance policy softening the cost of trading for him, and they'd still get 1.5 seasons of superlative performance from him in the meantime.
2) The Jays have budget problems in the near future. They currently have two outfielders signed to albtross contracts, which severely hampers their ability to construct their team.
3) The Jays are in the toughest division in baseball. Essentially, unless they can construct one of the two or three best teams in the majors, they have no chance of making the playoffs. This is a huge challenge that cannot be overstated. The Yankees spend so much money on their roster that they are always in contention for the playoffs. The Red Sox are the same. The Rays have built a juggernaut after ten years of top-five draft picks, and even the Orioles have begun to field a very competitive team after many years of mediocrity. The strength of schedule in the AL East is ridiculously high. So, they might have to take a step back (they have been stuck in the 6-10 range recently, which has meant they've only been finishing third or fourth in the division) in order to take two steps forward.
4) The Jays' chief organizational strength is young pitching. If they can continue to churn out young pitchers who can do a credible job, transforming Halladay into some blue-chip hitting prospects (especially a shortstop, a huge organizational weakness), has its appeal. They can't replace Halladay, but they still might be better off from a team-building standpoint without him.
My head can come up with some logical reasons why the Jays should strongly consider trading Roy Halladay if the price is right.
But my heart doesn't care. I hope they can find other solutions to their problems and keep the best pitcher in franchise history right where he belongs.
Friday, June 26, 2009
I won't be defending this pirate ...
No, I'd find myself hauled up on charges if I ever found the thief who stole my bike yesterday.
I'm not a happy camper, to say the least, and this is going to stick in my craw for a while.
(Ironically, it was stolen from a bike rack in front of the Law Society. Walking outside to discover the shredded lock lying on the ground all by its lonesome, ruined self was not a fun moment.)
I'm not a happy camper, to say the least, and this is going to stick in my craw for a while.
(Ironically, it was stolen from a bike rack in front of the Law Society. Walking outside to discover the shredded lock lying on the ground all by its lonesome, ruined self was not a fun moment.)
Friday, June 12, 2009
Omaha is often a synonym for pain, redux
First of all, congrats to CK who managed to cash in the World Series in the OE/SE 2.5K event! It sounds as if she got unlucky in a couple of big hands or she could have gone even further. I look forward to reading her tournament recap.
Myself, I have been suffering through an 8 -- hah, make that sixteen! -- buy-in downswing in my online PLO experiment. I'm going to do a session review and see if I can spot some leaks, or merely have to attribute the poor results mostly to variance. I certainly know I was mostly getting the money in ahead when I was playing for stacks, so I suspect the latter.
Edit
it's the latter. See this as a typical example where I get it in as a 70% favourite and lose:
I'm glad I didn't have any bets on the Cup Finals. I would have bet on Detroit but the Penguins managed to beat the Red Wings at Joe Louis in game seven.
If the weather holds this weekend I'll be spending nearly all of it outside playing disc golf, riding the trails, or at the beach. Enjoying summer activities outdoors takes precedence over pokering, to be sure!
Myself, I have been suffering through an 8 -- hah, make that sixteen! -- buy-in downswing in my online PLO experiment. I'm going to do a session review and see if I can spot some leaks, or merely have to attribute the poor results mostly to variance. I certainly know I was mostly getting the money in ahead when I was playing for stacks, so I suspect the latter.
Edit
it's the latter. See this as a typical example where I get it in as a 70% favourite and lose:
I'm glad I didn't have any bets on the Cup Finals. I would have bet on Detroit but the Penguins managed to beat the Red Wings at Joe Louis in game seven.
If the weather holds this weekend I'll be spending nearly all of it outside playing disc golf, riding the trails, or at the beach. Enjoying summer activities outdoors takes precedence over pokering, to be sure!
Monday, June 8, 2009
Omaha is often a synonym for pain
Discuss villain's play here. Was his line sensible vs. the range of hands I could reasonably have?
Needless to say, I was ruefully pleased he didn't have a full stack to start the hand. It dulled the pain ... somewhat.
I actually turned a profit during this session, but this subtracted hugely from my bottom line. I have found that PLO8 is one of the most reliable, low-variance ways to build the ol' BR ... this example of a sick beat notwithstanding, because I love this sort of action and I do hold up my fair share of the time.
Needless to say, I was ruefully pleased he didn't have a full stack to start the hand. It dulled the pain ... somewhat.
I actually turned a profit during this session, but this subtracted hugely from my bottom line. I have found that PLO8 is one of the most reliable, low-variance ways to build the ol' BR ... this example of a sick beat notwithstanding, because I love this sort of action and I do hold up my fair share of the time.
Summer musings
June has been a strange month so far.
The good:
Vancouver weather has been great and I've been playing a lot of disc golf.
An old friend has moved back to town, escaping from a bad job in the rural wilds of Alberta.
My sister and her husband just purchased a new condo and I had some fun pouring over all the documents as a refresher in solicitor's work in a real property transaction.
I hear this local blogger has actually done some wheeling and dealing for a change. Who knows if he'll blog again any time soon though.
The bad:
My fourth live session of LHE went south in a hurry. -40BBs as I lost all five big pots I played with sets and overpairs that got run down. (On the plus side, the game was fantastic and it was variance that did me in, not my decision-making.)
I got my car towed by parking oh, five meters from an intersection near my place yesterday (the law says park 6+ meters away). Of the 15k illegally-parked vehicles in my neighbourhood, I got picked on. A fun $112.90 siphoned out of my pocket.
The "meh":
Still no concrete developments as I am looking to change jobs. Don't want to defend pirates - I mean, criminals - any longer so that means I am kicking the tires elsewhere and waiting to hear back on some leads. But I should have this sorted out by the end of the summer.
The good:
Vancouver weather has been great and I've been playing a lot of disc golf.
An old friend has moved back to town, escaping from a bad job in the rural wilds of Alberta.
My sister and her husband just purchased a new condo and I had some fun pouring over all the documents as a refresher in solicitor's work in a real property transaction.
I hear this local blogger has actually done some wheeling and dealing for a change. Who knows if he'll blog again any time soon though.
The bad:
My fourth live session of LHE went south in a hurry. -40BBs as I lost all five big pots I played with sets and overpairs that got run down. (On the plus side, the game was fantastic and it was variance that did me in, not my decision-making.)
I got my car towed by parking oh, five meters from an intersection near my place yesterday (the law says park 6+ meters away). Of the 15k illegally-parked vehicles in my neighbourhood, I got picked on. A fun $112.90 siphoned out of my pocket.
The "meh":
Still no concrete developments as I am looking to change jobs. Don't want to defend pirates - I mean, criminals - any longer so that means I am kicking the tires elsewhere and waiting to hear back on some leads. But I should have this sorted out by the end of the summer.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Hold On ....
I just couldn't ... not when it mattered.
I didn't think games this consistently beatable existed anymore, but in my third live LHE session (3 hours in length) of the month I booked a +38BB win vs. a table full of Crasians of various ages (Vancouver does have a relatively high Asian population; and we all know they are predisposed to gamble it up).
I kept some good notes on this session and the telltale sign that it was an excellent game was that I ran poorly despite winning that much.
In sequence, here are five notable hands that took place during the session. Two of them I won, and three of them I lost.
Hand #1: As was often customary, seven players each paid two small bets to see the flop. I was on the button with 5h6h. The flop came down 7-high with two diamonds giving me a gutshot. Someone bet and *everyone* called. The turn was another diamond and not a picture card. Surprisingly, it got checked around. The river was another rag and everyone checked to me, so ... I bet. Everyone folded. Since I was a solid winner at this point I opted, somewhat uncharacteristically, to show the bluff, to more than a few murmurs of amazement and some laughter. My motive for doing so was to induce more action the next time I got a premium hand.
Hand #2: On the very next deal, I get AA in the cut-off. You can't script this any better, I thought to myself. Sure enough, I raised it up and I got three callers, including an extremely loose payoff wizard three to my left who would regularly call with absolutely anything and wanted to see every flop. On the river, his 9h2h had improved to bottom two pair and he check-calls me and I get the bad news. I flash the AA and he acts all surprised as he collects the pot (5-outer).
Hand #3: I raise a bunch of limpers with AcJc on the button and get a bunch of callers. The flop comes down J-high and the BB (old grizzled Crasian) leads out, I pop him, he 3-bets. He leads out on the turn and the river and spikes two pair on the end with KJ. I run goot (3-outer).
Hand #4: I lose the big one. The kill was on and a young Crasian wearing an old KVOS baseball cap had the kill button UTG. I see a spot to create a ton of dead money so I re-raise from the cut-off with a small pair (44). Six players cap it preflop with the UTG kill player ramming and jamming with me. The flop comes down KQ4 rainbow. If there's one thing I believe in, it is playing small sets fast. Three of us cap the flop and we force the other three out of the pot. The turn is a deuce and both players check to me; I bet thnking there is absolutely no way I'm beat here ... and they both call. The river is a nine (JT got there) and it gets checked to me, I bet again, UTG calls and the MP player folds. UTG player announces "I have a set". My heart sinking, I say "So do I" and table my fours. He flips over ... 99. Goodbye, 48BB pot. (2-outer that really stung)
My 14 BB profit for the session evaporated in one fell swoop and I'm back down to my starting stack.
Undeterred, I battled back and win some pots (97ss was a very good hand for me several times), and I was able to play AK on the button vs. the villain from #4 for maximum value with a AJT flop, forcing him to fold QQ to a river raise after he'd taken the lead with a preflop 3-bet and I had just kept calling his bets on the first two streets. Then I get some revenge in Hand #5, another kill pot where again I had good table position. I held the mighty 5c7c and take down a juicy 28BB pot when I flopped a double-gutter on an Ad3s4d board, got there on the turn when an off-suit 6 fell, and was able to milk some extra big bets from two aces-up hands.
All in all, my wallet continues to grow fatter and the 5/5 PLO game inches ever closer. I may have to rethink my plans though ... I don't know that I can reliably beat that game for $100/hr with anywhere near the consistency I've shown so far in the LHE, and the variance issue is important when comparing fixed-bet to big-bet games. Even with losing a huge pot to a 22:1 shot I came out well ahead overall; in PLO I would lose my whole stack and have to rebuy. As long as I can book the wins at this rate, I'll stick with the LHE.
I didn't think games this consistently beatable existed anymore, but in my third live LHE session (3 hours in length) of the month I booked a +38BB win vs. a table full of Crasians of various ages (Vancouver does have a relatively high Asian population; and we all know they are predisposed to gamble it up).
I kept some good notes on this session and the telltale sign that it was an excellent game was that I ran poorly despite winning that much.
In sequence, here are five notable hands that took place during the session. Two of them I won, and three of them I lost.
Hand #1: As was often customary, seven players each paid two small bets to see the flop. I was on the button with 5h6h. The flop came down 7-high with two diamonds giving me a gutshot. Someone bet and *everyone* called. The turn was another diamond and not a picture card. Surprisingly, it got checked around. The river was another rag and everyone checked to me, so ... I bet. Everyone folded. Since I was a solid winner at this point I opted, somewhat uncharacteristically, to show the bluff, to more than a few murmurs of amazement and some laughter. My motive for doing so was to induce more action the next time I got a premium hand.
Hand #2: On the very next deal, I get AA in the cut-off. You can't script this any better, I thought to myself. Sure enough, I raised it up and I got three callers, including an extremely loose payoff wizard three to my left who would regularly call with absolutely anything and wanted to see every flop. On the river, his 9h2h had improved to bottom two pair and he check-calls me and I get the bad news. I flash the AA and he acts all surprised as he collects the pot (5-outer).
Hand #3: I raise a bunch of limpers with AcJc on the button and get a bunch of callers. The flop comes down J-high and the BB (old grizzled Crasian) leads out, I pop him, he 3-bets. He leads out on the turn and the river and spikes two pair on the end with KJ. I run goot (3-outer).
Hand #4: I lose the big one. The kill was on and a young Crasian wearing an old KVOS baseball cap had the kill button UTG. I see a spot to create a ton of dead money so I re-raise from the cut-off with a small pair (44). Six players cap it preflop with the UTG kill player ramming and jamming with me. The flop comes down KQ4 rainbow. If there's one thing I believe in, it is playing small sets fast. Three of us cap the flop and we force the other three out of the pot. The turn is a deuce and both players check to me; I bet thnking there is absolutely no way I'm beat here ... and they both call. The river is a nine (JT got there) and it gets checked to me, I bet again, UTG calls and the MP player folds. UTG player announces "I have a set". My heart sinking, I say "So do I" and table my fours. He flips over ... 99. Goodbye, 48BB pot. (2-outer that really stung)
My 14 BB profit for the session evaporated in one fell swoop and I'm back down to my starting stack.
Undeterred, I battled back and win some pots (97ss was a very good hand for me several times), and I was able to play AK on the button vs. the villain from #4 for maximum value with a AJT flop, forcing him to fold QQ to a river raise after he'd taken the lead with a preflop 3-bet and I had just kept calling his bets on the first two streets. Then I get some revenge in Hand #5, another kill pot where again I had good table position. I held the mighty 5c7c and take down a juicy 28BB pot when I flopped a double-gutter on an Ad3s4d board, got there on the turn when an off-suit 6 fell, and was able to milk some extra big bets from two aces-up hands.
All in all, my wallet continues to grow fatter and the 5/5 PLO game inches ever closer. I may have to rethink my plans though ... I don't know that I can reliably beat that game for $100/hr with anywhere near the consistency I've shown so far in the LHE, and the variance issue is important when comparing fixed-bet to big-bet games. Even with losing a huge pot to a 22:1 shot I came out well ahead overall; in PLO I would lose my whole stack and have to rebuy. As long as I can book the wins at this rate, I'll stick with the LHE.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
