Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Deception early in deepstack tourneys ...

... can be costly. I was able to induce a bluff from a player who had exhibited signs of overplaying hands, but it put nearly all of my stack at risk early in the double-stacked, KO version of the Mookie. Check out my decision on the turn; I'd welcome discusssion on my decision to check rather than lead out.


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PirateLawyer [Th 9d]
PirateLawyer calls 40
jjok calls 40
ElSnarfGrande folds
twoblackaces folds
wangta79 raises to 150
TFG folds
lucko21 folds
pokerpeaker folds
IlkkaK folds
PirateLawyer raises to 450 -- decide to represent JJ+, AK for deception and set up a postflop play with a squeeze; this opponent has shown signs of weakness early on
jjok folds
wangta79 calls 300
*** FLOP *** [7d 7c 8h]
PirateLawyer bets 600 -- easy c-bet with OESD; I can play this hand with confidence
wangta79 calls 600
*** TURN *** [7d 7c 8h] [Ts]
PirateLawyer checks -- now have top pair to go with my OESD, I decide to c/r, but this is a risky decision because I will have to hold up if my opponent takes the bait
wangta79 bets 1,925, and is all in -- I read this as a horrible bluff by a big ace; this bet size screams weakness and I can beat ace-high
PirateLawyer calls 1,925 -- nothing he has makes sense except Ax that I'm beating, and even if I'm wrong, I can improve with any ten, six, jack or possibly even a nine
wangta79 shows [Qs Ad] -- sure enough he has a big ace and I'm way ahead (86% favourite)
PirateLawyer shows [Th 9d]
*** RIVER *** [7d 7c 8h Ts] [Ac] -- thank you FTP, on cue the RNG shows its disdain for me
wangta79 shows two pair, Aces and Sevens
PirateLawyer shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
wangta79 wins the pot (6,050) with two pair, Aces and Sevens

Comments? This was a high-variance situation to get in early on in a deepstack tournament, but I still think it was a +EV situation given that I flopped well and seized the initiative. Ceding the initative was a calculated risk and I was strongly favoured to get a full double-up and an early KO bounty; it just didn't work out this time.


Astin said...

Let's see... early, unknown donk, deep stacks, TP on a paired board with an OESD... I think the fact it was the Mookie is key here too.

You're under the impression that (a) this guy is readable, and (b) a c/r would work. Since (b) became moot on his bluff, I guess it can be disregarded.

Seems like a high risk to me this early on. Yes, you were waaaay ahead and read him right, but your tournament life is on the line too.

But it wasn't scared poker, and you got it in with the best of it and stuck with your read. Obviously the other 6/7 of the times you do that, you win.

I guess what it boils down to, is if you're willing to put the majority of your stack on the line this early for a chance to double up. Chad would say go for it, Harrington would say no. Me? Depends on the situation... here, I'm not sure. Hell, J8o is a possibility in The Mookie. :)

lucko said...

Preflop is pretty thin. Reraise-stealing OOP isn't something I love to do early in mtt's. You are going to get in some tricky spots post when called and you flop middle pair or even top pair. Its going to be hard to get away from top pair ~60bbs deep when the pot is reraised pre.

Post flop, the hand pretty much plays itself imo. The only other possible line to take is maybe to CRAI on the flop.

Fuel55 said...

<{{{{{{-<< can't dodge >>-{{{{{->

Shrike said...

No, I guess I'm not Phil Hellmuth . . .