I lost a big pot here, but I still think my raise at the end is correct, because my opponent could have quite a few flushes and Ax hands in his range that I beat, and he's priced in to call with all of them. I'd be interested to hear what others have to think about how I played this hand.
Having most of my session's profit wiped away like that stings but so long as I feel I am making correct decisions I will not be too disappointed with the results of any one hand.
1 comment:
Interesting hand. I'm a complete novice at NL Cash, and my analysis will likely show just that, but here goes.
Raise preflop: roger.
Get a caller on the button, and then get a 3x raise from the SB: I fold to the reraise from the blind because we're likely beat, and a flip at best, with a caller behind us (although a button call doesn't scare me much).
Flop: I bet this dream flop. We hope that someone else has an ace and/or thinks we're trying to buy the pot.
Turn: Weak bet from villain is either AA or 99 (5%?) or a hand we beat (95%?), if we raise here we probably take down the pot. Calling isn't terrible to get more money on the river.
River: Pot sized bets on the river usually scream strength to me. The villain bets big, with a monster, hoping to make you believe he is bluffing, and he also hopes you have hit (which he can probably justify from your turn call). This board is scary, and he doesn't seem scared by anything you could hold, as you say, he is priced in to call anything you fire back. On the flip side, there is a chance he is only betting the scary board and your timidness in the hand so far.
I don't think the river raise is terrible, but I do think you'll lose more than 50% of the time in this spot, which seems kind of a crazy number to just come up with out of thin air, especially with your holdings... but really, what can we put the SB on with a re-raise preflop that we beat? QcQx-TcTx and maaybe AxQx?
A fold on the river seems very, very weak, but given the action and narrowing down the villain's range, a fold seems better than a raise.
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