Here is the situation: you have a below-average stack of approximately 11K (down from a starting stack of 15K; you've missed a couple of big draws early where you have correctly folded to pot-sized bets on the turn). Table is seven-handed; you're in a two-table live tournament with the top-3 places of 13 runners paying out. A proficient LAG who seemingly doesn't blog anymore opens for 3.5 bets in MP. The button calls.
You look down at 99. You decide to squeeze and make a pot-sized raise to 3.5K (putting in a third of your stack). The initial raiser puts you all-in, the button folds, and you have to call your last 7K or so to win a pot of approximately 23K for your tournament life (the SB and button contribute about 1K of dead money, so that means it's your 11K +1K dead + 11K villain). You believe your opponent is only putting in the last raise with bigger pairs or two overcards. This means you have roughly 40% equity against his range in a back-of-envelope calculation, you figure, as you go in the tank at the table. The chief difficulty is how much to weight his range towards the overpairs where you are a 4:1 underdog vs. the classic race situation where you can't get your chips in fast enough given the pot odds.
Do you call or do you fold?
5 comments:
Instacall. 99 is surely the nuts in this spot against this player who routinely shoves 60BB with 32o in this spot.
I agree with the first caller. :).
LOL
Fold when you know you are beat is what HoP always says.
TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK
you are against one of those hands.
obviously you call
this is against fuel right, just call since you know you are behind but will suckout.
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