Thursday, August 7, 2008

Deepstack tournament poker analysis

Here is a lesson of what not to do in a deepstack tourney. This hand contains plenty of mistakes to critique. I'll go through it street by street.

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds, 7 Players

CO: 3,030
BTN: 2,955
SB: 2,970
Hero (BB): 3,000
UTG: 3,000
UTG+1: 3,045
MP: 3,000

Pre-Flop: (45) Q T dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 30, MP calls 30, 2 folds, SB calls 15, Hero checks

This is a good spot to squeeze but on the third hand of the tourney and no real reads on how players are going to play, it's defensible enough just to take the free flop with a hand that has good multiway potential.

Flop: (120) K A 5 (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 90, UTG+1 folds, MP raises to 390, SB folds, Hero raises to 690, MP raises to 2,970 and is All-In, Hero calls 2,280 and is All-In

A lot of very interesting decisions to be made in this situation. Leading out to build the pot with a big draw (12 clean outs to make the nuts) is, I think, prudent. The raise by MP can't plausibly represent AA, KK, or AK; hand range analysis leads one to believe that we're looking at a top pair hand with a decent kicker that probably can't stand a flop 3-bet, since as BB I can represent 2 pair plausibly, or even bottom set. If villain shoves with 1 pr I have nearly 45% pot equity and intend to call.

The nightmare scenario is if villain has KdJd but that is extremely unlikely, and sure enough they show up here with TPTK.

Turn: (6,060) K (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (6,060) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 6,060 Pot
Hero showed Q T (two pair, Kings and Tens) and LOST (-3,000 NET)
MP showed Q A (two pair, Aces and Kings) and WON 6,060 (+3,060 NET)

This hand, which was the third hand of Level One in last night's Mookie, features a plethora of questionable decisions by both players:

1) Above all, poor pot control;

2) Playing for stacks with one pair and a draw on the third hand of Lvl 1 of a deepstack tournament;

3) Semi-bluffing by the drawing hand out of position when the default assumption for bloggaments is that top pair hands rarely if ever fold means that the fold equity just is not there;

4) Choosing to coinflip instead of preserving 2200 chips despite getting the proper price to gamble when getting 2.6:1 pot odds with 45% pot equity us arguably a bad decision as you can fold and wait for another opportunity to chip back up with plenty of play left;

5) Villain could well have called the flop 3-bet in position and re-evaluate if non-scare card came, or fold if strong belief that the BB's represented 2 pr + hand was reasonable with only 10% of stack invested on flop RR;

……… but this is a bloggament, top pair top kicker is GOLD, which is why the flop 3-bet was very likely a poor line to take. Betting out to build a pot, however, was a good idea.

The BB in this hand was me, of course, and I earned the Gigli because I couldn't hit a diamond, a jack, or running tens.

Villain busted out only 10 slots after me. Always nice to see my chips put to good use.

Comments, as always, are welcome.


Astin said...

I was wondering how you Gigli'd.

Two things:

1.- You've already covered. Way to early for this kind of play from either player.

2.- Bloggers hate the turn. HATE it. They have no idea how to play past the flop (and in some cases even then). Watch the cash game players to see frustration as they WILL play to the turn and then get tilted by the donkey who can't let go of TPTK on a connected board.

Shrike said...

Yes, I should have exercised restraint and played this aggressively on the turn unless a third ace showed up.

More than anything this is an example of why you should not semibluff a player who really doesn't care what their opponent might have but instead says "TPTK!" let's get stacks in!

Jon Braun said...

Shitty deal. But some would say fold only because of chip conservation. So early in you could look for a better spot later to gets these guys who are presumably LAGs. I favour getting this all in a short stack tourney, but this is not a bad play either here, stacks aren't THAT deep. But I still muck the QT here because of the one bullet factor. Cash game, wonderful spot.

My blog is back, and better. See you later today, I'm guessing.


Poker Brian said...

Im commenting on your album criteria sincei doubt youd read it 3 posts down...

Its easy to see we all grew up in different eras.

I think I was 7 when Joshua Tree was released, 11 when Nevermind came out.

The albums that I think were/are the best:

Weezer - The Blue Album "Buddy Holly", "Undone (The Sweater Song", and "Say It Ain't So". Great album, all the songs were sing-a-longable and remind me fondly of my Magic the Gathering days.

Counting Crows - August and Everything After...
Rolling Stone's 1993 Album of the year. "Mr Jones" "Omaha" "Rain King". A depressed teenager's medicine

Oasis - Wonderwall
Remember, they were supposed to be the Next Beatles!
"Wonderwall" "Dont Look Back In Anger" "Champain (sp?) Supernova"
The whole album was great, Brit Rock at its finest.

Poker Brian said...

my mistake, Oasis' album was What's The Story (Morning Glory)