Pattern Recognition

17 more years of waiting?

2011-06-15T18:50:00.002-07:00

I publish this post after two periods of Game Seven in Vancouver. My team is losing 3-0. I am resigned to the Boston Bruins hoisting the Stanley Cup in our rink. This will be a bitter pill to swallow. I went downtown today on errands - and stopped not three blocks from the rink at midday. The atmosphere was electric, the mood incredibly anxious. Nearly everyone was wearing the team colours. I thought back to last year when my father and I were two of the lucky spectators at the Olympic gold-medal game. I could well imagine what the atmosphere was going to be in a few hours when the game would start and the Canucks would have a winner-take-all Game 7 to win the Stanley Cup on home ice.

I could rant about this series for hours, but the bottom line was this: this was the first Finals appearance by the Canucks in franchise history where they were the clear favourites to win the Cup. If this series had been played 100 times, I think Vancouver would have won at least 70 times. But this is real life. In a given season, you only have one opportunity to become a champion. You don't get a do-over or a large sample size to determine who wins the post-season tournament.

The Canucks didn't get the job done. Mostly, this was their own fault. Some of it was atrociously bad luck. And a very small part of the blame should be laid at the door of the NHL's inconsistent officiating, which definitely did the Canucks no favours. But make no mistake, over the balance of play of these seven games, Boston was the better team. That's why they play the games; in professional team sports the best team often doesn't win the championship. And that's what I believe happened here.

This was a gut-wrenching series to watch, especially for the last five games. The Canucks' luck was ridiculously bad - all the bounces of the puck went against them; the Bruins' superior goal-tending and defensive system negated much of Vancouver's league-best offense; significant injuries to nearly all of the Canucks' best players - most notably the Game One injury to Ken Hamhuis, the team's most reliable defenseman, and the clearly hobbled Ryan Kesler, the heart and soul of the team who soldiered on at half-strength - as well as the Aaron Rome suspension, robbed the team of its cohesion at the worst possible time. And you could just see the Canucks being worn down, their speed and skill advantages over Boston blunted as the series wore on.

Above all, this series will be remembered as one where the Canucks were blown out in all three games in Boston with sub-par performances by Roberto Luongo and most everyone else in a Canucks uniform.

I really hope the Canucks can make it back to the finals and take care of unfinished business before my nephew, aged 18 months, graduates from high school.

I hope Mason Raymond recovers fully from a gruesome back injury he suffered at the :20 second mark of Game Six.

If a miracle of biblical proportions occurs in the third period and the Canucks come back to win the series, I will probably end up collapsing after a week-long bender. If the Bruins win, I will undoubtedly be a morose grump for a few days. Either way, my liver is in for a world of hurt.

A very, very small part of me admires the achievement of Tim Thomas. He's the same age as I am - and he just put up a goal-tending performance for the ages.

17 years of waiting is over

2011-05-24T23:28:00.000-07:00

The Canucks are going to the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Canucks beat the Hawks

2011-04-26T22:08:00.001-07:00

Finally.

Maui Trip Report, pt. 1

2011-04-25T15:31:00.000-07:00

I don't want to write anything about the Canucks-'Hawks series until it is over. Until then, I'll post a serialized trip report from my recent vacation - with pics to come.

2nd April

Get up early for 6 hr flight to Maui. Supposedly I'll be sitting next to sister, brother-in-law and 16 month-old nephew in bulkhead seats - more room to stretch out? yes please! - but they prove to be a myth. Bad beat.

I had resigned myself to long odds that Oliver would behave on the flight but he came through like a champion, much to the delight of everyone in the vicinity, as we gladly enjoyed the 7-to-1 shot. Only bad part of flight was about 1 hour's worth of fairly significant turbulence. Would happily have traded back the hour saved - we landed in just over 5 hours - for a smoother flight.

Somehow we spent 2.5 hours on arrival collecting baggage and picking up two rental cars. We then drove to . . . Costco. Yep, the first stop on a Hawaiian vacation was a giant store. Nothing says you're in Maui like Costco! This store was quite a bit different than the ones you'd find in Vancouver, though. Picked up essential supplies, then proceeded to posh resort. A spot of trouble with our room, but this was sorted out to our satisfaction and we settled in. (We soon found out the unit we were renting was for sale for a cool 1.4MM.) We spent a quiet evening getting the hang of the place and barbequed some burgers, than we turned in, ready to hit the beach the next day.

Escaping to paradise

2011-03-26T20:02:00.000-07:00

I have been mulling over what to do with this space. Like many bloggers whose authorial voice has waned, my posting frequency has dropped to nearly nil. Since it's not 2005 and I no longer feel the need to try to post a lot about my poker adventures or record my halting steps towards proficiency at various forms of the game, I have been considering what other topics I might opt to write about here. I have a few ideas and once I've made some preparations, all six of you who still read this blog will hopefully be rewarded with some content of non-negligible value.

In the meantime, I'm happy to say that I'll be taking a family vacation in a week's time to Hawaii. It'll be my first time to that island paradise, and we're all set to stay at a very nice resort. I hope my nephew, who is fifteen months old, behaves on the flight. Other news of interest: my father, who is a few years older than this car enthusiast, and probably has even more disposable income than his fellow doctor to make frivolous purchases, will likely own one of these very soon. Needless to say, I have dibs on taking it out for a spin - my brother-in-law will have to get in line!

Sadly, I'll be an island away from this poker blogger when I'm vacationing, and it doesn't look as if I'll be able to hop over for a visit because our schedules don't mesh. I guess our next meeting will have to wait until Vegas in December.

I hope to fit in a round of golf whilst in Maui, so if anyone has any golf course suggestions, I'm all ears.

In the words of an English peasant

2011-02-08T18:12:00.000-08:00

This brilliant scene from one of my all-time favourite movies resonates with me more than usual this week, since Sunday is my birthday - my 37th. And I'm starting to notice the onset of age. I've spotted some gray hair. Carpe diem!

At least no-one has yet called me ...

King Arthur: Old woman.
Dennis: Man.
King Arthur: Man, sorry. What knight lives in that castle over there?
Dennis: I'm 37.
King Arthur: What?
Dennis: I'm 37. I'm not old.
King Arthur: Well I can't just call you "man".
Dennis: Well you could say "Dennis".
King Arthur: I didn't know you were called Dennis.
Dennis: Well you didn't bother to find out did you?
King Arthur: I did say sorry about the "old woman", but from behind you looked...
Dennis: What I object to is you automatically treat me like an inferior.
King Arthur: Well I am king.
Dennis: Oh, king eh? Very nice. And how'd you get that, eh? By exploiting the workers. By hanging on to outdated imperialist dogma which perpetuates the economic and social differences in our society.

Go watch the whole thing. And laugh your guts out. Or go see Spamalot, because it's nearly as awesome.

Musings on the year that was 2010 and some 2011 predictions

2011-01-04T18:43:00.000-08:00

Here are some predictions for 2011, and a few thoughts on 2010.

I will lose ten pounds to reach my target weight of 165 lbs (which is what I was at back when I graduated high school).

I will achieve some much-needed professional development and move upwards, not laterally, in the coming months.

I will improve my endurance and run some 10K races this summer, hopefully breaking the 55-minute barrier.

The Vancouver Canucks - currently the best team in the NHL - will be Stanley Cup finalists for the first time since 1994. We will probably lose in heart-breaking fashion to the Pittsburgh Penguins because Sidney Crosby always finds a way to win. This will be a time where my sincere admiration for Crosby will (temporarily) turn to unvarnished hatred.

I will attend next December's blogger gathering in Las Vegas.

I will put more time and effort into crushing some local private NL/PLO cash games that I've recently discovered. I will likely play more online poker in 2011 than I did in 2010, sticking to lower stakes mixed games and PLO8 cash games and a few bloggaments. Bring on the next BBT, Al!

I will blog more (but it's likely poker won't be a regular topic unless the American online poker industry blows up in dramatic fashion).

Looking back on 2010, I have a lot to be thankful for. I significantly improved my fitness, I saw the most famous international goal in Canadian hockey in my lifetime from 40 feet away (my DOB is post-Summit Series), and most importantly of all, my close family is all in good health and grew by one with the birth of my nephew Oliver, who recently turned one on December 30th.

Nineteen

2010-12-11T18:46:00.000-08:00

Tonight marks the night when #19 rises to the rafters. Just two years after his retirement from the NHL, Markus Naslund, the best player in Vancouver Canucks team history (he owns a ton of team records for his accomplishments as a Canuck), has his number retired by the Canucks. It's the third number retired by the franchise, following Stan Smyl (#12) and Trevor Linden (#16).

It couldn't happen to a more deserving person.

The only thing that could make me happier as a lifelong fan of the team is a Stanley Cup parade.

Two words: no-hitter

2010-10-06T21:00:00.000-07:00

Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.

Even though he's no longer pitching for my team, I still cheer for him.

Now that he's pitching in the playoffs for Philadelphia, casual baseball fans realize just how good Doc is. All he's done for the Phillies this year, his first season playing in the National League, is put up a Cy Young-worthy season which featured a perfect game, and now the second no-hitter in baseball's postseason history (NB. there have been 1,264 postseason baseball games played since 1903 - so this was a truly staggering feat). And this wasn't an easy task - Halladay was facing the highest-scoring team in the league in the Cincinnati Reds - and he made the Reds batters look completely helpless at the plate. No-one even came close to getting a hit; and Halladay only walked one batter during the game.

Five men have thrown two no-hitters in a calendar year or a postseason no-hitter. Halladay just became the first pitcher in baseball history to accomplish both feats.

I look forward to the day Doc gets inducted to the Hall of Fame, and I can see him wearing a Blue Jays cap once again.

Two words: whisky night

2010-09-04T23:41:00.000-07:00

The long hot dry summer is over.

A night out with father, brother-in-law, and brother-in-law's father (visiting from Scotland) put paid to the mostly alcohol-free summer. We spent a night out having a good meal followed by the real treat of the evening, sampling a great many expensive offerings of Scotland's finest export in Vancouver's best gastropub - none of your Irish or American or Canadian inferior offerings for this party of four, if you please (the menu had a full page of single malts; there was about seven or eight Irish whiskeys on the back page, and a few North American and Japanese).

My favourite - we sampled about twenty, accompanied by a tasty cheese plate, some sausage and french fries - was a classic offering: a 16 year-old Lagavulin. But if you pressed me, I'd have cast a strong second-place vote for the 15 year-old Bruichladdich. Or my perennial favorite, Caol Ila (a real fire-starter, an 8 year-old with over 64% alcohol content), could have taken pride of place. Or there was this very good recommendation by the bar manager ...

I'm glad we thought ahead and booked a cab for the trip home.

Dog days of summer

2010-07-26T12:10:00.000-07:00

I will seize on any lame excuse for my lack of blogging. Hot summer weather is a good one.

Despite the summer heat, I've managed to break through a running plateau. Some proper new running shoes and a new venue - which incidentally was a training track for Roger Bannister's 1954 four-minute mile at the Commonwealth Games - have furnished added motivation to my exercise program. I've managed to crack the six-minute barrier (km) for my half-hour runs (total distance just over 5K). I hope by next summer to be doing 10K runs at that pace or better.

Haven't been playing any poker due to lack of inspiration. If I can't play close to my best, there's no point in playing. This means I should be a complete degen in December at the WPBG . . . isn't poker blogger money the best? I'm on track to meet my target weight of 165 lbs, but losing the first 15 was easier than the remaining 15 will be. I wonder if anyone else is going to make their weight?

Nephew is just about 7 months old. A new purchase which has been a big hit is a wading pool.

One of my favourite all-time baseball players entered the Hall of Fame yesterday. Here's a tip of the cap to Andre Dawson. Hopefully his former Expos teammate Tim Raines won't be far behind.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

2010-06-29T16:44:00.001-07:00

It's been a lazy summer so far, and not entirely by choice.

Injured my foot somehow; haven't been able to run for past ten days or so. Disappointing, because I'd broken through a plateau and was chewing up more distance in my 30 minute runs. I hope to be back at it either Wednesday or Friday, though.

My nephew will reach the 6-month mark tomorrow, and as a doting uncle I babysit every chance I get to spoil him shamelessly and leave all the responsibilities to the parents.

Poker hasn't been so fun lately - I used up some of my unused stockpile of FTP points to earn T$, and proceeded to bubble a slew of SNGs for zero profit, but I'm reminded why I like Rush Poker when I play just long enough to hold up in spots like this (having 55% equity in a 3-way AIPF pot is hard to do in Omaha!):

Fitness Goals

2010-06-16T20:40:00.000-07:00

As time marches on I figure I should provide a brief update on the weight loss bet that I've really been taking seriously from the get-go. I plan on attending this year's WBG in December after a one-year hiatus, and there's something on the line as I've pledged to reach a target weight of 75 kilos - which is what I tipped the scales at way back in 1992 when I graduated from high school. I'm pleased to report that I'm well on my way there, having weighed in today at 80 kilos. Running three times a week and hitting the gym another couple of times per week since February has done the trick, along with much improved nutrition. When I began my running program it was all I could do to wheeze through ten-minutes stretches at a laughably slow pace; now I'm able to run about 5km in 30 minutes. Not exactly a 4 minute mile pace but pretty respectable by my way of thinking (at least for now). This time next year I hope to be able to run 10K in under 50 minutes.

I plan to hit the ice again for weekly hockey games in the fall; it's been several years since I've played organized hockey and given how I'm feeling I am pretty optimistic that I'll have the cardiovascular fitness to seamlessly pretend I'm an NHL'er. I just hope my hands haven't completely lost their touch; I used to play hockey at a pretty high level back when I was a teenager. Only time will tell if I'm delusional.

Anatomy of a PLO game

2010-05-30T16:09:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting hands from a deep-stacked PLO game I played earlier today. This was at low stakes, obviously, but it was a good opportunity to shake off some rust as I shift attention away from tournament poker back to the cash games. The mixed games are still my bread-and-butter, but today I felt like something fast-paced, which Omaha definitely is!

Hand #1: Backing into two pair

This guy could have had anything. It turned out he had two club blockers and luckboxed his way to a mediocre two pair hand, which I was able to vanquish.

Hand #2: Value-betting a straight

Pretty trivial spot. I love the power of position.

Hand #3: Folding a set

I was probably priced in to call off my stack hoping to boat up. I had one of my outs in my hand and this led me to wuss out and fold (incorrectly I would guess).

Hand #4: Losing the minimum with a premium draw

Villain pretty much has to have me beat on the flop given this action. I was happy to take free cards for the chance to go to valuetown if I made a better hand.

The following three hands had me squaring off with a particular villain. His play led me to believe I should give him action, but he was very transparent with made hands, as we'll see below.

Hand #5: Folding the nut flush

I got too cute here. I should have led right out on the turn with the nuts. Check-folding the river was painful but necessary.

Hand #6: Overplaying a draw

I was still steaming a little from Hand #6 and decided to gamble against what was pretty obviously a set of queens. I didn't get there.

Hand #7: Getting even with trips

Given the last two hands against this villain I absolutely cannot fold here.

Hand #8: Snapping off bare aces

I like to have a little more equity on the flop but I was more than willing to get it in given all the possibilities I had to improve. I probably should have waited until the turn to get it in.

Hand #9: Properly played aces

I'm willing to pay off against the miracle quad fives. Villain is much more likely to have a big pair in the hole.

Hand #10: Letting the new table maniac bet for you

If I had been certain he only had two pair and would pay off a raise, I would have re-popped it. But I chickened out in case he had the straight. If I had felt like pushing the action I could have given more action on the turn with the nut flush draw and an overpair.

Hand #11: My boat is bigger than yours

Given my recent run of cards people were looking me up with inferior values.

Hand #12: Missing my freeroll

The final hand of our session. The Austrian villain was seduced by the quantity of crappy draws he had and avoided a lot of disaster cards by making a nut straight right along with me. This hand more than anything illustrates the beauty of a superior hand structure where you can dominate someone's draws.

I happily booked a +4 buy-in win for the session and will be back for more, once I've fixed a few leaks that have revealed themselves (see in particular Hands 3, 5, and 6) from this session review.

A game of excellence

2010-05-29T18:44:00.000-07:00

I never doubted Roy Halladay would be dominant in the NL, but he just exceeded my lofty expectations by throwing the twentieth perfect game in ML baseball history. The number of baseball games in MLB history is a rather large number -- approximately eight hundred thousand -- so it's hard not to marvel at such a rare accomplishment. Which happens once every thirty-seven thousand games, or thereabouts.

We miss you, Doc.

At least you'll go into the Hall of Fame wearing a Blue Jays cap.

A game of luck

2010-05-26T22:18:00.000-07:00

There won't be a pirate sighting in the ToC of the BBT5, sadly. As is my usual wont in the Mookie, I built a big stack in Hour 1 (top five), maintained it in Hour 2 (top ten), went completely card dead in Hour 3 and busted out once I was forced to play preflop shove poker with 10BBs despite having way the best of it when the money went in preflop (AK vs. A3).

I thought about channeling Waffles in a rant but I can't be unhappy with how I busted out. Bloggers calling off with inferior ace-x hands is just a way of life and in the long-term I love getting those calls.

Good luck to those with a ToC seat! And thanks to Al and FTP for a pile of free stuff ... something like 35K in prizes with only twenty-one players competing in the final tournament(!).

I like a good freeroll, redux

2010-05-20T11:53:00.000-07:00

Al works hard for us, doesn't he?

I have a few more thoughts on some trends I've noticed playing in just a handful of the BBT5 events so far.

Firstly, some very aggressive players have really put a beating on the tournament fields so far in the BBT5. They apply maximum pressure preflop with any two cards and, frankly, avoid playing postflop poker whenever possible -- this is especially true in the later stages of the tournaments, even when stacks are 20+ bbs. I even saw one particular player open-shove a 25 bb stack once an orbit four consecutive times in the middle stages of last night's Mookie! Each time I woke up with a fairly good hand - usually AJ, AQ, AK - on the button and reluctantly folded since I didn't want to blindly gamble it up. I'd have to say this is pretty frustrating for me, coming from a cash game background where the effective stacks are usually much deeper, and I don't have tournament survival as an overriding concern. After all, in a cash game I can simply rebuy and plan to take all of a target's money in a subsequent hand; I can't do that in a tournament. I like to see a flop with significant money behind as it gives me more room to maneuver; their tactics effectively minimize the skill factor in the game and maximize the luck factor. Obviously, this does mean that they get paid off when they have big hands because they are going to generate action when other players have a medium-to-good hand to fight back with; what I don't like about this style of play is when I see the questionable calls preflop with a lot of dominated ace-rag hands in hopes they will get lucky. All that said, if you can adapt to deal with this style, don't fear getting it in with a hand like the mighty jack-ace; they are going to call with many worse aces and you will have the best of it. Above all, I would try not to give them the opportunity to put in the last raise. Either apply pressure yourself, by making them decide to call off their chips. Or best of all, if you do have a premium hand, put out a normal raise and pray that they get frisky. You can even try the ol' limp re-raise or limp-call from early position with a big pair since they won't be able to resist jamming from late position on you a lot of the time. More than anything, plan your hand out in advance once you've adjusted to the presence of a loose aggressive player.

More than anything I regret not being able to amass a 25+ bb stack at the final table of last night's Mookie. That would have given me enough ammunition to play back at the aggressive players, or to force them to play postflop by calling their raises in position in an attempt to maneuver myself into a situation where I think I have an advantage.

An old-fashioned Mookie + Dookie recap

2010-05-19T23:28:00.000-07:00

It's been a really really long time since I've done a bloggament recap. So why not two for the price of one, seeing as how I made the final table in both?

The Dookie was a PLO8 tournament. PLO8 is pretty much my favourite poker variant of them all, and I like to think I am pretty solid with the fundamentals of this game. Many people are not. So I was sailing along in a commanding position, chip-leader with six left, and ultimately decided to put maximum pressure on the villain whom I barely had covered, with a premium hand: Kh Ad 2c 3d. He opted to put 7000 tournament chips in with Ah 2s 3c 2h (!) ... and a measly pair of deuces held up in a pretty sick spot:

Needless to say, I think the villain should never get it in here.

I wasn't too unhappy because I was making a run in the Mookie and was trying to focus on being a short-stack ninja as we reached the final nine and the final table (which was also the cash bubble). In the previous BBT series (2-4) I have managed to win this tournament for a ToC seat, but so far in BBT5 I have only played one Mookie and didn't get anywhere. This time, I swore it would be different.

Things got off to a good start as I got some revenge on JuliusGoat, when he 4-bet jammed with QQ and ran into a bigger pair:

Then I folded, folded, folded, and folded some more. Card death was rampant. I won the occasional pot to stay at around 5K in chips for a very long time.

Then I opened in early position with sevens and folded to a button re-raise by a player whom I know doesn't ever fold to a 4-bet.

The very next hand, I was able to squeeze in the big blind against three opponents with pocket tens. Given my image, I probably would have tried this with any two cards.

Shortly after this I was dealt three good hands in succession, and lost 1K in chips since I don't like to overplay AK or AQ unimproved ... this put me back down to 4K in chips, and I was struggling to maintain an average chip stack. I refused to panic, however, since I still had plenty in relation to the blinds.

Using my tight image, I played some positional poker to get a fold from what was likely a better hand than mine:

The very next hand I was dealt tens again and 3-bet to bring my stack up 6K without a showdown. I like it when my raises get respect.

I went back to folding for multiple orbits.

As the antes kicked in, I won the blinds a couple of times with AK.

I was able to win a bigger pot, without having to go to showdown, with the reliable jack-ace:

I 3-bet light on the button and folded to a 4-bet, tumbling back down to 4500 in chips.

I had my one big suckout of the tourney right here as a blind steal went wrong. With 1000 out there and a stack just over 4000 behind I open-shoved A2 on the button to pick up the pot. Of course, I got out of jail against a big pair:

As the blinds and antes increased, I was able to take them down uncontested again with AK two more times, and then my pocket jacks held vs. a short-stacked opponent's eights. I looked up and all of a sudden I had over 15K in chips. I felt like I was Astin for a while.

I folded down to 12.5K and snapped off cmitch's open-shove with the mighty ace-ten (easy call because his range here is really really wide):

Then I was able to win another hand against a short-stack when my eights held up against his early position shove with KJ to climb to 23K in chips as we neared the final table bubble. Sadly, I would climb no higher than this and was forced to fold my way up the ladder for a while.

I ran up against MemphisMojo right on the final table bubble when we were playing five-handed and was forced to lay down a hand when I just didn't think I could get him to fold once he'd led out on a scary flop, since he was representing exactly what I was supposed to have:

Once we reached the final table a player quickly busted out so we were down to eight. I was somehow dealt AK back-to-back and prayed for action on the second hand, but no dice. (Seriously, I must have been dealt AK about six times, and always won the blinds without any action. If I had ever had some other quality hands that I could have opened to appear more active, I'm sure I would have gotten some action. I really felt like I was Astin in disguise.)

Unfortunately, I then had to fold a parade of junk hands for multiple orbits and my tournament came to an abrupt end as I exited in 7th place as I open-shoved 13 bbs from the small blind right into the big blind's pocket jacks. FPT decided to taunt me by giving me eleven outs on the turn, but I didn't get there.

Only three more BBT5 tournaments to go! I hope to give myself at least one more good shot at a ToC seat. Best of luck to everyone in their pursuit of this same goal.

Running to stand still, and yet more scooping

2010-05-16T22:55:00.001-07:00

Today was not a fun day, but it did end on a good note. The morning was spent in very fine weather doing a charity 5K run. Of course, I failed my orientation skill check and proceeded to run about 7K since the route was not well marked in two crucial spots. So needless to say I was able to ignore my posted time of finish and grumpily proceeded to stuff my face with refreshments once I finally arrived at the finish line.

The afternoon brought some fussy work as I struggled to proofread a manuscript for a project I've left way behind schedule. I was distracted and still need to do a lot of work on it before it sees the light of day, and the deadline is looming.

I then proceeded to donk off my chips in the BBT5 freeroll, getting away from several second-best hands with a minimum of damage. I was never able to get my stack back above its starting amount, and I foolishly dusted off my respectably-sized stack when I made the mistake of trying to get a blogger - in this case, the estimable Numb to fold top pair. Needless to say this is just not a good idea.

And then I proceeded to get stomped when I played some cash games afterwards. Some Rush NLHE, no good. Some Rush PLO, which had been recommended to me by several trustworthy sources? No good. +2 buy-ins to begin with but soon enough I would lose some monster hands where I made the correct decisions but just couldn't hold up despite having the best of it. Five buy-ins later and I was stuck three overall.

Then I found the reliable cure: a mixed game, this time a juicy HORSE table. How juicy? Yet another example of a scoop as I played two rotations for a nice +2 buy-ins to end the night with the BR stabilized back to an acceptable level. My hourly rate in this game was fairly impressive!

We pick up the action on 4th street in - what else? - a stud hi/lo hand. The pot was inflated on 3rd as four of us got here after capping the action for four bets each. (I got a bit out of line but I knew V1 was a complete maniac)

Dealt to V1 [5c] [4h]
Dealt to V2 [9c] [6c]
Dealt to Hero [8c Ad 6h] [7s]
Dealt to V3 [Jh] [Qd]

Each person put in one more bet.

On 5th:

Dealt to V1 [5c 4h] [Jd]
Dealt to V2 [9c 6c] [Kh]
Dealt to Hero [8c Ad 6h 7s] [5d]
Dealt to V3 [Jh Qd] [Th]

I bet with a made low and an OESD, everyone called.

On 6th:

Dealt to V1 [5c 4h Jd] [4s]
Dealt to V2 [9c 6c Kh] [6d]
Dealt to Hero [8c Ad 6h 7s 5d] [4c]
Dealt to V3 [Jh Qd Th] [Jc]

V3 bets out, the other two call, I raise with my straight and made low, they all call. I'm showing four to a straight and a made low and they are all determined to see 7th! I'm sure you all see what's happening here, besides noticing that I am very lucky to have made a two-way hand here. Again, everyone else is playing for half.

On 7th, the following took place:

V1 bet. V2 called. Our hero raised. V3 folded. V1 3-bet all-in. V2 called. I 4-bet. V2 called.

At showdown, I tabled my eight-high straight and 76 low for a scoop.

V2 mucked [As Ac 9c 6c Kh 6d Ts] - HI: two pair, Aces and Sixes
V1 mucked [Ah 8s 5c 4h Jd 4s 3h] - HI: a pair of Fours; LO: 8,5,4,3,A

We can clearly see that V2 has some fundamental flaws to correct in his game. V1 got taken for a ride and stubbornly lost some extra bets that he didn't have to on the later streets, much to my benefit. Yours truly continues to get lucky with some marginal hands in just the right situations to play them.

The same lessons apply that I mentioned in my previous post.

Hopefully my next 5K run at the end of the month is on a course I can't get lost in.

A game of scooping

2010-05-15T16:25:00.000-07:00

It's a truism in split pot poker games that playing to win the whole pot is a fundamental component of a winning strategy. This is doubly true when you are involved in a hand against multiple opponents. Today I played a hand that illustrates this principle very well, and it's worth examining the play of this hand in detail.

This afternoon I found myself playing in a low-stakes 7-Game mixed game. The rotation had made its way to stud hi/lo, which is undoubtedly one of my best games, and perhaps even more importantly, often the worst game in the rotation for most of my opponents. Needless to say, I was primed and ready to find any profitable situation that I could and start pounding away.

I was dealt the [8s 4s] 6h and was the bring-in.
Villain #1 had the Ah showing and completed.
Villain #2 had the Th showing and called.

I don't love my hand here, since I have a pretty ragged 3-card low to an 8, but given this price I really should see 4th street. If I catch good I can likely proceed further with the hand; otherwise I can get away cheaply. More importantly it's distinctly possible that both my opponents have high-only hands and I'd be drawing very live for the low half with a chance at making a low straight or flush to scoop the entire pot 3-handed, which is a very profitable opportunity. Also, Villain #2 is extremely likely to show up here with split tens. If for some reason he's got rolled up tens, action could be fast and furious on later streets, which again would be to my benefit if I can make a medium straight.

On 4th, I do catch good: [8s 4s] 6h 7h
Villain #1 Ah 4h
Villain #2 Th 9d

Villain #1 bet right out, and Villain #2 called. I have to be wary that Villain #1 is drawing to a better low than I am (since I've got two hearts showing I can discount the possibility that he's also drawing to a flush), but with a gutshot straight draw which would also give me a qualifying low, this is a trivial call closing out the action. The turning point of the hand will be, as it so often is, 5th street when the bets double in size.

On 5th, I catch my gin card: [8s 4s] 6h 7h 5h

Dealt to Villain #2 [Th 9d] [Qs]
Dealt to Villain #1 [Ah 4h] [5d]

Somewhat to my surprise, Villain #2 leads out; I raise and Villain #1 makes it three bets! Villain #2 calls two bets cold and I have an easy cap since I have a made hand in both directions and can represent a flush if I catch another heart on 6th. Note, however, the potential vulnerability of my hand: I can end up with the second-best hand in both directions if Villain #1 makes a better low and Villain #2 can show up with a higher straight or a full house for the high half.

On 6th, the betting is capped again in the exact same pattern as on 5th:

Dealt to Villain #2 [Th 9d Qs] [5c]
Dealt to Hero [8s 4s 6h 7h 5h] [Kc]
Dealt to Villain #1 [Ah 4h 5d] [6d]

At this point I am definitely worried that Villain #1 had a board-lock for the low half, but I am equally determined to carve up Villain #2 for the high since he was clearly playing only for half. Finding small edges is crucial in a situation like this! And a remote possibility remains that I am currently in a position to scoop the entire pot if Villain #1 had started with split aces and a 4, 5 or 6 he'd paired up for aces up.

7th street came and I caught an immaterial card.

Villain #2 bet, Villain #1 called, and I called with the eight-high straight. To my amazement, I ended up scooping the entire pot (this led me to second-guess myself for not raising here)!

Here is what my opponents showed up with:

Seat 1: Villain #1 showed [As Kh Ah 4h 5d 6d 4d] and lost with HI: two pair, Aces and Fours
Seat 5: Villain #2 showed [Jd Ts Th 9d Qs 5c Td] and lost with HI: three of a kind, Tens
Seat 6: Hero showed [8s 6c 6h 7h 5h Kc 4s] and won with HI: a straight, Eight high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4

Let's look at what happened here on the later streets. Villain #1's play on 5th and 6th streets is hilarious in that he made it 3 bets with aces up and a live low draw against all the action in front of him, which means he is taking the worst of it; he presumably has to catch one of eight or ten outs to take down the low half, or one of 3-4 outs for an improbable full house for the high half. Villain #2 shoveled a lot of money into the pot from 5th street onwards in a horrible situation hoping to lock up the high half, as he was being forced to put in a ton of money whilst frozen out of half of the pot. And I was the benefactor as my two opponents didn't manage to improve.

The lesson here? Play for the whole pot.

Another lesson: mixed games are fun and profitable.

NB. If anyone knows of a good stud re-player, let me know!

A game of sadness

2010-05-11T21:45:00.000-07:00

The Canucks achieved the dubious achievement of losing all three of their home games in this disappointing series which never lived up to its potential. Speaking purely as a hockey fan who loves a classic playoff contest between two very good teams, this series failed to deliver any classic games; all were strangely uncompetitive, ugly contests. The Canucks' decimated blueline crippled their chances of extending the series to a seventh game and the Canucks' best players up front - the Sedins - simply didn't show up when the team needed a stalwart effort to stay alive.

More than anything I will remember what might have been: what if Sami Salo hadn't been hurt? and Alexander Edler (early in game six)? what if the bounces of the puck had been evenly distributed? what if the Canucks had not taken so many bad penalties? and so on.

For the second consecutive year I am forced to pay off after betting on my team. I don't like it one bit.

Finally, I hate Dustin Byfuglien. He exhibited real class in trash-talking Roberto Luongo after scoring a meaningless goal to make it 5-1 halfway through the 3rd period. It was so egregious both the referee Bill McCreary and his own coach Joel Quenneville told him to shut up. You know you're a complete moron when you can manage that feat. If the NHL had an award for most unsportsmanlike player, Byfuglien would be the runaway winner.

The Canucks could well meet Chicago again next year ... they will have an opportunity to rebuild their shattered defense corps in the off-season and their group of forwards should if anything improve even more with the expected addition of Cory Hodgson, a highly touted prospect who will add yet more scoring talent to the lineup, and the continued growth of Michael Grabner and Jannik Hansen. Those three will more than make up for the expected departure of Pavol Demitra.

A game of desire

2010-05-09T19:46:00.000-07:00

Canucks wanted it more. Luongo played very well. Salo was hurt on a scary play. Canucks gutted out a 4-1 win and again proved they are the better team at even strength.

I was also able to play in the Mother's Day edition of the BBT5 invitational. Had good chips well into the second hour but went completely card dead as we got down to twenty players. The evil Goat pulled off not one but two check-raises where I had to find a laydown.

I managed a timely double with ATsooted vs. a chipleader's KJ, but my nemesis 2BA -- unquestionably a superior player I was avoiding at all costs -- put me to the test. Given my chipstack I clearly had to go with AdKd and sadly he won the race in the cruelest way possible: he rivered a set of nines after I flopped top pair. I was even getting 3:1 on my money as the CL made the overcall with a small pair!

I exited in 12th place of the freeroll; many thanks to Al for giving me the chance to play.

I really hope Salo's injury proves less serious than it appears and that the Canucks aren't short-handed going into a pivotal game six at home as they do their utmost to extend the series to a deciding game seven back in Chicago.

A game of bounces

2010-05-07T20:12:00.000-07:00

This series is over.

How I saw this game:

Byfuglien is 270 pounds and apparently the Canucks can deck him like a rag doll and the refs will let him draw penalties at will. This is beyond absurd. If the Canucks aren't allowed to check him, how are they supposed to defend their goalie? Sami Salo makes brilliant defensive play at end of 1st period and is called for a ridiculous penalty. Naturallly, Hawks score on PP to start 2nd period off a ridiculous bounce. This was the turning point of the game.

Canucks' PK having same problems as they were early in series vs. Kings. The Hawks are a superior team so it is very tough for Canucks to come back against this.

The Canucks began to lose their composure as they were very frustrated by the juxtaposition of bad luck and questionable officiating. This was a perfect situation for Hawks to exploit the situation and bury the Canucks, because they are a bigger, grittier team who are able to defend a lead well if Vancouver isn't able to employ their puck possession game and generate scoring chances with speed and passing.

Multiple 5-3 man advantages sealed the game. Apparently one of the Sedins can lean on Seabrook and he'll topple like a bowling pin. Can only dream that a ref would recognize a dive when they see one.

Canucks are done for second consecutive year.

Incredibly frustrating turn of events. Every bounce of the puck and nearly every decision by the referees went their way, a trend that began in the second period of game two. I turned the game off early in the 3rd period after yet another perfect bounce led to a back-breaking Hawks goal. Hawks won 6-4 and lead series 3-1. The Canucks tried to address how the Hawks were able to dominate Canucks' crease in game three and they were hammered by the refs for it. Inevitably I am going to come across as a sore loser but I honestly believe the Canucks deserved better treatment from the officials. And it would be nice for the puck's bounces to even out.

I give the Canucks demerits for not showing more poise. And the Sedins didn't fight through adversity when it counted most.

A game of speed

2010-05-05T15:45:00.000-07:00

Game three, Canucks vs. Hawks.

We're going to see if the Canucks can retain home ice advantage.

We're going to see a jazzed-up home crowd - it won't be as ridiculously loud as the Olympic gold-medal game, but it will be close enough - and an amazing rendition of the Canadian national anthem. Trust me.

I'll see if I can manage to live blog the game. I'll potentially have to contend with boisterous fans slinging beers and such, so we'll see how much I can safely text some live updates.

Good luck to those of you trying to win a BBT5 ToC seat tonight in the tournament formerly known as the Mookie!

7:05 PM: Hawks lead 1-0. No one in crowd can believe Canucks haven't scored yet. They are trying to score the perfect goal; they need to shoot more.

7:10 PM: Canucks somehow fail to score again. Hawks goalie is standing on his head.

7:15 PM: Kesler takes bad penalty with 1st period nearly over. Mason Raymond is best player on the ice so far.

7:18 PM: Hawks inevitably score on PP. Daniel Sedin gets cheap-shotted by Boland while on PP and drops the gloves; both are sent off. Nothing going right for Canucks right now.

7:25 PM: 2-0 Hawks end of 1st with a PP starting the 2nd period. Canucks really need to break through with the next goal to get back in this game. The score flatters the Hawks but that is irrelevant.

7:48 PM: This game is a really chippy affair. Both teams taking liberties after the whistle. Canucks still unable to capitalize on their chances.

7:53 PM: 2-1 Hawks. Canucks own the puck for 2+ minutes with a vintage Sedin puck possession shift and finally score. If the Canucks can simply manage better special teams play they should win the series since they are the better team five-on-five.

7:55 PM: Refs have missed two blatant penalties against the Hawks. I'm all about letting the players play but they are getting away with murder.

8:02 PM Burrows takes a bad penalty after refs miss 3 obvious calls on the Hawks. Of course they score on the PP as they keep getting all the breaks and bounces. 3-1 Hawks and the crowd is livid.

8:07 PM Canucks kill off a penalty. Henrik Sedin draws an interference penalty in plain view of both refs ... who fail to call it. The officiating tonight is absurd!

8:14 PM Burrows redeems himself with a goal on a four-on-two rush in final minute of second period. Hawks just can't cope with Canucks' speed as they try all sorts of defensive interference that the refs are letting them get away with. 3-2 Hawks at second intermission.

8:39 PM Apparently the Sedins never draw a penalty. I'm incensed at the referees.

8:41 PM The refs finally send off Byfuglien. He's been a force tonight but he's lucky he's only taken two penalties. He could easily have served four minor penalties.

8:48 PM Hawks score a goal after some harmless possession in the Canucks zone. Lucky bounce right to Hossa and it's 4-2. Huge goal.

8:53 PM I just don't see the Hawks relinquishing the lead with ten minutes left. Keith and Seabrook are a real shutdown defensive pair and are playing huge minutes. But if the Canucks can get their PP untracked who knows what might happen. They deserve better than a 4-2 deficit.

9:00 PM Byfuglien with the hat-trick. Hawks get away with goaltender interference as two of them push Luongo into the net. Totally pathetic. Upon further review ... hey, the puck went in off a Canuck skate. No kidding! Why not review the play for a penalty while you are at it?!

Hawks take a 2-1 series lead and reclaim home ice advantage. I'm going home spitting mad.

A game of mistakes

2010-05-03T22:31:00.000-07:00

The Canucks lost game two in disappointing fashion. They nearly had the Hawks buried in the opening minutes, going up 2-0 but failing to put the game out of reach despite several glorious chances to blitz the home team into oblivion; Chicago was lucky not to be blown out of their own building for the second straight contest. Chicago slowly rallied and showed a lot more speed and grit once they shook off their bout of nerves, and the Canucks suffered a few bad bounces and compounded their bad luck by making several sloppy errors leading to three unanswered goals for the resurgent Hawks giving them a 3-2 lead late in the 3rd period. The go-ahead goal was particularly agonizing as it came with less than 3 minutes left in regulation time. An empty-net goal completed the final score of 4-2. I still remain confident that Vancouver has the requisite talent and experience to win the series, but a 1-1 split coming home feels like a golden opportunity lost by the Canucks to take full control of the series given the balance of play in the first two games.

After that demoralizing loss, I proceeded to fire up the virtual poker tables and promptly lost a half-dozen buy-ins. I would feel much more disheartened but for the fact I got the money in good in all three large pots that I played; of course I lost all three since AA < QQ (AIPF), KK < A8 (all the money went in on a rainbow 847 flop), and so on. So I lost despite not making any big mistakes, it seems.

Bad news comes in threes, they say. I'm waiting for the unholy trinity to strike at any moment.

Edit: I spoke too soon. I was making a small modest comeback and then this happened. I know to listen when the poker gods are telling me to quit. It's pretty soul-destroying to consistently run so far below expectation ... I suspect it would hurt less if I didn't have concerns about running my bankroll down to the red zone because of all this variance. I'm almost at the point where I just want to take my last hundred that I currently have on FTP and play some tournaments in an attempt to make a big score and not care so much if I take a really bad beat or two, since those are more common (and somewhat less painful methinks) in the shallower-stacked play found in tournament poker.

A game of heart

2010-05-01T19:58:00.000-07:00

Canucks win game one of what promises to be an epic playoff series, 5-1, in Chicago.

The Vancouver Canucks are an extremely potent offensive hockey team. They have a dozen skilled forwards who combine blazing speed with otherworldly puck possession (I think there was a two-plus minute stretch tonight where the Sedins seemed to have the puck on a string) and a relentless transition game (Ryan Kesler is a Selke Trophy-nominee), several outstanding offensive-minded defensemen who can contribute from the back end (Sami Salo might have the hardest shot in hockey--so long as his stick doesn't break!), and an outstanding goaltender in Roberto Luongo who has unfinished business with the Chicago Blackhawks after last year's playoff series. If Luongo keeps playing at this level I wouldn't be surprised if the Canucks make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals ... but I'm getting ahead of myself.

I was frankly very surprised by two things: Chicago's lack of speed and their unwillingness to initiate contact against the Canucks.

I was not surprised at Chicago's poor goaltending. The Hawks rely on the All-Star defensive pairing of Keith and Seabrook to limit the quality scoring chances their netminder has to face, and neither of them had a good game tonight.

My bet with lightning36 looks good so far, but it's going to be a long series. I expect the Hawks to respond by ratcheting up their intensity and trying to combat the Canucks' puck possession game with a much more persistent forecheck on the Canucks' defense. It's no secret that the Canucks' Achilles heel is a lack of depth on their defense corps so grinding them down is the Hawks' surest path to a series victory.

I can't wait for Monday night and game two.

A game of edges

2010-05-01T14:23:00.001-07:00

Poker is a cruel game. You can manipulate and outmaneuver your opponents such that you get all the chips in the middle with a big advantage. But there's always a chance that your patience and cleverness will go unrewarded. In the grand scheme of things, however, this is actually a necessary evil.

The non-zero frequency that the deck bails out bad players is a feature of the game that keeps poker alive, since without the suckouts and bad beats the bad players would go broke without a chance to keep their bankrolls intact enough to keep donating to better players in the long-term.

I just wish it didn't hurt so much in the short-term when I keep losing after getting myself in situations where I play four or five big pots as a 9:1, 4:1, etc. favourite and lose every single one of them. That's just plain old variance at its cruelest, but I have to keep a proper perspective: if you keep putting yourself in good situations, you are going to take more than your share of bad beats.

Consequently, the lesson here is to keep playing this particular game because the players are so transparent in their play: but only after I've rebuilt my bankroll enough to withstand the variance. Taking shots at juicy games at higher stakes is one thing, but I still need to keep ten or fifteen buy-ins saved for this particular game.

Here's an example of what's been going wrong for me lately. This was a hand where the effective stack sizes were over 200BBs, and the preflop action let me find out just what sort of hand my opponent likely had whilst I had sufficient implied odds to see a flop. And it just so happened that I flopped well enough to play for a 400+BB pot (since postflop I am well ahead of two of the three possible hands he could have, as my opponent's range was polarized to QQ+). Sadly, this did not have a good ending for our hero. (NB. I would fold preflop if the stacks were shallower but I had very good implied odds, enough to see a flop with in my opinion when I was able to invest less than 10% of my stack preflop with a chance to win more than ten times my initial investment.)

I might have lost two buy-ins here with 4d5d, but I can take solace in all of the Galfond bucks I earned in this hand. My opponent's call here with aces was extremely unprofitable if you estimate the equity a pair of aces has against the range of hands I have for making this big check raise: sets, two pair, KK+, and drawing hands with 14+ outs. My strategy on this flop was to try to make myself appear like a shove-monkey making a play for the pot; and I induced a big mistake by my opponent who got stubborn with an overpair and couldn't lay it down.

Unfortunately for me, Galfond bucks can't buy anything in the real world.

Tournament Strategy Musings, and a Query

2010-04-29T09:02:00.000-07:00

For the first time in many moons I found myself playing in the Mookie, as the lure of the BBT5 proved too strong to resist. This was the first NLHE tournament I have played in a long, long time. I was excited to play with a lot of familiar screen names and to fire up BDR.

I got an ideal start, as not ten hands into the tournament I opened for a small 2.5 BB raise with two black tens from the cutoff. The big blind called and the flop came down a beautiful Td 3s 6s. The big blind checked, I bet half-pot, he check-raised to 330, and then I time-banked and shoved for 3100 hoping my 3-bet looked like an overplayed AK of spades or an overpair. Sure enough my opponent snap-called with a set of threes, and I held up for the early double-up.

For the rest of the early and middle stages of the tournament -- I think the Mookie had just under 90 players last night -- I slowly bled chips as I went completely card dead and lost every pot I played. Towards the end of the second hour I found myself back down to a starting stack of 3K after my AdKd got tangled up in a blind vs. blind situation where I didn't improve on the flop and I had to lay it down after a big flop raise of my continuation bet.

However, I managed to improbably triple up once the antes kicked in as I came over the top with KQ and another short-stack overcalled me, along with the original raiser. Two ace-high hands couldn't withstand a queen on the turn as I made top pair to vault up to a top-ten stack of 8500 entering the second break.

With one-third of the original field left, we entered the phase of the tournament that I have often used proficiently to position myself for a deep run into the final table in the past at the Mookie, as two of my past Mookie wins during BBTs can attest. Tonight it was not meant to be, however, as I uncharacteristically put my tournament life at risk preflop hoping for some fold equity (but not getting the desired result).

We'd just collapsed down to three tables with blinds at 200/400/50. A short-stack jammed his last 3 BBs into the middle, and an aggressive player with a 10K stack min-raised from the button to 2000 straight (20% of their stack). I'm in the small blind with AdKs and decide that I need to go with this hand. I hesitate between a shove and a scary-looking min-raise to 4200 or so (thus signaling I am committed to the hand), and opt for the former (this was only the second time in the tournament that I put in all my chips before the flop, but this player hadn't played with me during this tournament and would not be aware of this fact).

The player snap-called with a pair of fives. The short-stack made an improbable straight with 8s9h, the pair of fives rivered a set, and I ended up with the third-best hand with ace-high and exited the Mookie in 27th place.

Now, I'm a big fan of presto; this has been well-documented on this blog. I also know that many poker bloggers don't like to fold. But surely under these circumstances folding a small pair is prudent? The player can fold and still be in the top half of the remaining field in chips and avoids a situation where they can only hope they are in a weighted coinflip instead of being crushed by an overpair ...

Lastly, the structure of the BBT rewards winning a tournament to secure a seat at the ToC. How do these considerations factor in to a decision to stick it in with a small pair here? (Let us ignore the fact that this is a $10 tournament for the sake of discussion.)

So, did I misplay the AK? Would you have folded the pair of fives in that situation? Let me know what you think.

Slowplay to Oblivion, episode two

2010-04-28T18:38:00.000-07:00

This hand more or less demonstrates -- to a large degree -- why I never seem to be able to get an online bankroll into a healthy state. I should be able to find a fold at the end because the villain is supposed to have aces or queens. I will admit that I cursed when I saw what he actually beat me with.

In happier news, I will donk it up in the Mookie tonight and I have a pristine hardcover copy of Guy Gavriel Kay's new novel on my bedside table. The finer things in life more than make up for having a big pocket pair cracked on the virtual felt.

I believe in presto

2010-04-28T13:36:00.000-07:00

Sadly, it can be hard to get action with flopped quads, especially when you have 4-bet preflop in position.

Slowplay to Oblivion

2010-04-27T15:02:00.000-07:00

I lost a big pot here, but I still think my raise at the end is correct, because my opponent could have quite a few flushes and Ax hands in his range that I beat, and he's priced in to call with all of them. I'd be interested to hear what others have to think about how I played this hand.

Having most of my session's profit wiped away like that stings but so long as I feel I am making correct decisions I will not be too disappointed with the results of any one hand.

Presto is gold, exhibit 43798

2010-04-26T15:27:00.000-07:00

Only because he's actually blogging again will I extol the virtues of presto.

I guess this also is an example of why jacks suck.

Canucks vs. Hawks, redux

2010-04-25T20:43:00.000-07:00

Looks like it's time for another bet. Revenge for last year would be sweet.

Honing the overbet

2010-04-23T15:20:00.000-07:00

After the better part of a year not playing much at all online I have been shaking off some rust playing some cash games. I've had a lot of success with NL10 Rush Poker as a BR builder. Nut-peddling seems to be by far the path to victory; however, I have noticed that my bet-sizing needs work. Let's take this hand for example.

As you can see, I was dealt black aces in first position and I made a standard 3x open (the ol' limp re-raise play can sometimes work, but I'm not a big fan of it because you get so many dominated hands to fold that you want action from). A MP sooted ace donk then proceeded to call off his stack after flopping top pair. At these levels I have found that it is best to just bet your monster hands right out and hope your opponent has a piece because if they are at all stubborn, you will get maximum value, and if they don't have anything they will just fold, so you can mix in some continuation bets with big aces that don't improve as well to balance your own range.

What I don't like, after reviewing the hand, is the bet-sizing I used. I bet two-thirds pot when I really should have bet full pot or even a bit over full pot to set up the hand properly. I had to overbet the pot on multiple streets to get my opponent's entire stack in. I need to improve on this going forward by making a bigger bet on the flop to properly manipulate the pot size so I can play for stacks in a less suspicious manner by the end. In this particular instance I was saved by the fact that my opponent just didn't believe me and thought top pair was gold.

It's easy to nit-pick on the best way to play very strong hands but it's important to set up lines that work well for other hands in your range too.

What do you think?

[Edit] Here is another example of an overbet for value where I get a top pair hand to call off their stack after I've turned a flush:

FTP doomswitch is "off"

2010-04-22T22:04:00.000-07:00

I guess FTP is trying to make up for some of the bad kharma. It's been quite a while since I've been involved in a hand like this.

This time I will adhere to proper bankroll management and quit my Rush poker bonanza with a 600 BB stack intact.

[Edit] As for hand analysis, the original raiser's range is polarized and narrow; I put him squarely on one of two hands: QQ or KK. The MP who shoved could show up with 66+ or 7x, so again I had no hesitation in overcalling because I am crushing a large amount of his range.

The tradition lives

2010-04-16T22:14:00.000-07:00

Al is the man.

I like a good freeroll

2010-04-15T14:13:00.000-07:00

I made this one.

The amusing thing about this hand? The villain in this spot had the screenname "Don'tGetFelted".

Too bad he didn't take his own advice.

A reminder that a good PLO8 game is solid gold

2010-04-13T12:29:00.000-07:00

Somehow my hand held up to scoop. Finding these games is definitely a good opportunity for profit.

Now if only the stakes were higher or I could find a live game of this spread locally.

Victimized by an overbet for value

2010-04-08T23:33:00.000-07:00

Apparently even small-time fish know how to maximize their good fortune.

I'd be curious to know who could find a fold here to a 2x pot-sized bet. How large does the bluffing frequency have to be for a fold to be correct? (If the stack sizes were 300BBs deep to start the hand, does that change your answer? If not, how deep do the stacks have to be before you can find a fold?) I couldn't find one, and it cost me two full buy-ins. I would have felt better if villain had shown up with jacks, obviously. I was pretty darn sure I was good on the flop, so the turn card didn't scare me. And I was proven wrong.

A belated New Year's Resolution

2010-04-02T09:50:00.000-07:00

I've recently begun an exercise program because I was very unhappy with how much I'd let my fitness level deteriorate over the past four or five years. As I get older I've also realized that it takes more work to stay fit (duh!), so I've been complaining and grousing about this to my running partners as we train for a 10K run in May. Once I reach that goal, though, I know I need to set another one for later in the year. (Also I'm getting back on the ice and can't stand how much my hockey skills have atrophied. They say one's hands are the first thing to go but for me it's all cardiovascular weakness.)

I figure this means I should take another go at a weight loss target for year-end. I tried this in the summer of '09 but unfortunately I wasn't able to make it to Vegas in December to resolve the bet. History is not going to repeat itself -- I'll be making the trip this time around -- so I'll offer the same bet for any poker blogger who also wants extra motivation to shed some flab.

I currently weigh 83 kilos. My target is 75 kilos, which means I need to lose 1 kilo per month to reach 75 in time for the Winter Gathering.

So, who else is interested? Once we have a group of people signed up (please include personal goals when you sign up in the comments) we can decide on the stakes and figure out the weight-in. I'm sure someone will volunteer to adjudicate this bet and laugh at those who fail.

An interesting hand from the Mookie

2010-04-01T10:26:00.000-07:00

It's been a long time since I have played a blogger tourney, but I found myself playing the Mookie for the first time in many months last night. I got tangled up with the mean man from Philly himself, Riggstad, in a couple of large pots and he came out on top in both of them to eliminate me from the tournament. Our first hand is somewhat interesting so I thought I'd throw it up here to ask how others would have played it.

Here's the situation for. It's early in the tournament, level three with 30/60 blinds, and I've chipped up to nearly 4K in chips from the starting 3K since I won a nice pot with crubs vs. their biggest fan. I am in the big blind and am dealt a premium hand, AhKs.

The UTG player, who has me comfortably covered, opens to 180. My notes say he is extremely active from that position and could have a wide range of hands here. Two other players, Katitude (who also has me covered) and Riggstad (short-stacked with just over 1700 in chips) also call. I think it is quite likely that I currently have the best hand, but there's a chance the UTG raiser actually has a hand from the top of his range and I'd have to fold if he puts in a 4bet. Having that prospect firmly in mind, and cognizant of the virtues of controlling the pot size and slow-playing a hand that no-one will put me on, I opt to smooth call and see a flop.

The flop comes down 3d 7h Kd. This is obviously a pretty good one for my hand, so I decide to go with my original plan and I check, waiting to see what will happen. It gets checked around to Riggs, who jams his remaining 1500 chips into a pot of 750 in the middle and I snap-shove to isolate, figuring that he's much more likely to make this move with a flush draw than a made hand that already has me beat. Sure enough he flips over QdJd; I'm momentarily pleased that my reasoning was spot-on, but then I'm saddened when the draw manages to get there on the turn, sending the very nice pot of 3,840 over to Riggs. I'm left with about 2200 chips and the tournament continues on.

Comments on how I played the hand are welcome. I'm particularly interested to hear opinions about the preflop decision-making process. Which of you would rank the optimal decision tree as Raise > Call > Fold? As played, would you lead out on the flop, and if so, why? Would you play for all your chips if one of the big stacks raised on the flop?

My next car

2010-03-31T22:14:00.000-07:00

I can dream, can't I? I might face competition from this guy.

Getting back up

2010-03-16T12:02:00.000-07:00

Sometimes the biggest losses happen in the best games.

Maybe I should have quit once I had recouped nearly all of my losses.

These are poker cliches, and today I'm the poker player voicing them.

I recently put some money back on FTP, to end my rather lengthy hiatus from online poker. Unlike some other poker bloggers, I don't have a big tournament score to report. I like to play cash games, and I'd been told by reliable sources that Rush PLO (6max) was a goldmine. Sure, I thought, I can grind out a profit there. I have 30 buyins for this game, I'm properly rolled if I remain disciplined, and I've got a bonus to clear to boot.

A couple of thousand hands later, I'm down eight buyins.

How did this happen? The usual litany of suckouts, one or two coolers, and a mammoth pot shipped to a fishy villain when the stacks were ultra-deep. I need to go over this particular hand in some detail because I really would like a sanity check from other Omaholics regarding situations like this.

So to set the stage, here is what happened. I'd lost four buyins earlier in the day. I lost four more but had developed some very good notes and had learnt the tendencies of most of other players in the relatively small player pool rotating through the Rush PLO10 game. I proceeded to get paid off and win four buyins back and was consequently sitting with 450+BBs in my stack. Several other players were nearly as deep, and I was eager to see if I could take all their money. (I should have listened to that little voice in my head that said to use proper BR management and quit since I had an overly large amount of my BR at one table.)

I opened with a fantastic speculative hand in early position, the A778 ds (nut hearts and clubs). Two weak players (each sitting with less than 100BBs) call. The button, my main target whom I've observed closely and whose play is transparent -- most importantly of all, he overplays his hands and can be taken to value-town -- makes a pot-sweetening raise. I call, as do the other two players. The button still has 370BBs in his stack, and I cover.

The flop comes out a dreamy AA8, giving me the stone cold nuts.

I bet pot, since I figure the button will get stubborn and pay me off. Sure enough, the button calls as the other two players get out of the way.

The turn is the safest of cards, a seven of spades. I bet pot again. The button calls. The pot is now 420BBs and the button has less than half a pot-sized bet left (about 170).

The river is a king. I throw up in my mouth, since I figured the villain's range is heavily tilted to AKQJ hands (in other words, an ace with some Broadway sidecards), but I also know I am going to call if he shoves the river. So I do the betting for him and sure enough, he shows up with the nuts. In retrospect, as Bayne pointed out in the comments, this is probably a mistake. The longterm +EV play is probably to check-call (or even check-raise for value when he bluffs AQxx) in a spot like this where I might have been drawn out on since the board is so dry. This requires a lot of poise and ruthless composure to pull off, and I wasn't cold-blooded enough to do so here. On the other hand, the villain might pay off with trips on the river but not bet if checked to, so I'd lose a ton of value. It's hard to know which
line is best.

And thus I lost the biggest pot of my poker career (over 750 BBs) in terms of bets wagered. Did I do anything wrong? What arguments, if any, are there to play more conservatively? I'd welcome feedback on this.

So the next day I sucked it up, and played some lower-stakes NLHE. And won some money. The comeback begins - again.

The day after

2010-03-01T14:10:00.000-08:00

I'm never going to forget February 28, 2010.

Apparently a few Americans watched the men's hockey gold medal game along with me and the other 18 thousand or so live spectators at Canada Hockey Place.

Of course, on a per-capita basis this event shattered all domestic records: on average, nearly half the Candian population watched the entire game (just under 17 million people), and 80% of the population watched part of the game. Eighty percent!

Some of my American friends have congratulated me on the result -- for which I am quite appreciative (I should take the time here to compliment the American team; they have nothing to be ashamed of and they should hold their heads high after having such a phenomenal tournament in Canada's home rink, and what's more their team plays a very Canadian style with all of the attributes we prize so highly in our own players). A couple have followed up by saying "Hey, go ahead and celebrate, this is your Super Bowl". I suppose that's a reasonable statement from their point of view, but it doesn't really come close to approximating just how important this game was to me and the rest of Canada. This New York Times piece does a fair job of describing hockey's place in Canada's psyche; I'm one of those who strapped on a pair of skates when I was 3 years old and began playing hockey before I turned five.

The Cold War is over; this game might not have the geo-political dimensions of the '72 Summit Series but I can say I was fifty feet away from the action when Sidney Crosby scored the most important goal of my lifetime. Crosby has had an amazing eight months: he's won the Stanley Cup and an Olympic gold medal all before his 23rd birthday.

After the game - I really didn't want to leave the building, but officials cleared it away promptly as they wanted to get people over to the closing ceremonies on time - I walked with my dad through downtown to reach his office's underground parking lot. Neither of us could stop smiling. We waved at the people screaming from balconies above us. We high-fived complete strangers singing O Canada. The scene was pure bedlam - I hope to upload a few pictures we took of the crowds - and in fact at one point I feared for public safety as we got separated in the crush at Granville and Robson as the crowd grew a bit unruly.

To wrap up I'll use a crude analogy: let's say you were a Chicago Cubs fan and your team finally won the World Series, and they did so at Wrigley Field against the hated New York Yankees. Then imagine that your national identity was contained within the state of Illinois and you and your fellow citizens only cared about baseball and nothing else.

Hockey is Canada's religion.

I'm never going to forget February 28, 2010.

Gold

2010-02-26T20:46:00.000-08:00

I have a ticket to the gold medal game. That is all.

I might just have the best parents in the world. What a stealth birthday present.

NB. I'll take action on the game (prop bets, drinks, whatever) to be paid up at next Vegas blogger gathering I attend. Post a comment if you want in.

I felt a rush

2010-02-15T23:14:00.000-08:00

I now see the appeal. About thirty hands into my first foray at FTP's Rush Poker, single-tabling a low stakes NL table, this happened:

Later I won another buy-in off someone who felt like gambling with AQo vs. my QQ.

And then another when someone shoved into me with a crappy ace, like so:

Sometimes, poker is easy.

Then, a lucky villain escaped a cooler situation with half of the pot:

NB: don't engage in fancy traps like I did here:

But do punish overpairs like this:

Finally I sucked out pretty nicely when I decided to gamble it up with AKs preflop against a couple of short stacks. I didn't figure on being in such bad shape, but I got there:

Overall, my initial impressions of Rush Poker are very positive; a common theme should be apparent from the hand histories above which is that nitting it up and taking good gambles when you have the proper overlay is very +EV. Once I built a big stack I consistently tried to play big pots only when I felt it was correct; I often employed small flop re-raises as a defensive tactic and I would often fold trouble hands (eg. top pair, third kicker) to real heat. I shall be sure to try some PLO tables next. I hear from reliable sources that they are as equally profitable as the NL tables I was playing tonight.

Post-birthday "gift"

2010-02-14T20:28:00.000-08:00

This is not a disguised bad beat post. Rather, it's an example of how much +EV you can find in a good PLO8 cash game.

PLO8 really can be a low variance bankroll builder. The poker gods just decided I had to suck up a loss this time, but I'll take this gamble every day. Let's look at the equities here:

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

board: Tc Th 2h
Hand Pot equity
3c 3d 7h 6h 8.81%
As Kh 2s 2c 68.94%
Ah 5h Qh 9h 3.31%
8s Ac Ad 4h 18.94%

This is just a fantastic value for money in a spot like this. Look at the money odds I was getting to hold up with my underfull! Much of the time I will scoop and nearly all of the time I will take half of the pot 4-ways for a phenomenal expected profit.

A very small early birthday gift

2010-02-12T17:25:00.001-08:00

I promised myself a birthday present: some time spent playing Omaha.

Of course, with the Olympics starting today all I could manage was some low-stakes online play--the 7-game mix--at lunchtime because the city is turning into a veritable zoo.

And here's FTP rewarding me with a small gift as I actually managed to win a big pot playing relatively deep. Ordinarily I don't like overplaying a hand like this but I had enough time spent with this villain to recognize the action being given was with a really wide range of hands, most of which I beat.

I ran the equity calculation afterward and was mildly surprised that I was only a 65/35 favourite. I got partially fooled by the fact that my opponent actually had 11 wins. As badly as I played this hand (my bet-sizing on the turn was awful and was supremely exploitable), my opponent butchered it even worse: putting that much money in the pot drawing to a 4-high flush and a bare wheel on a paired board is a recipe for a world of hurt against my range. He's just lucky that he was up against the bottom of my range to actually have any equity at all (since a lot of the time he'd be drawing dead).

The 7-game mix can surely be a profitable one to play. I might have to try Rush poker soon.

[Edit] Bonus hand, which goes a fair way to demonstrating my observation regarding the 7-game. Scandis will give you all the action you could want, and with complete trash:

A quiet January

2010-01-30T14:38:00.000-08:00

I haven't blogged at all this month.

So, here are a few observations from what has been a very busy month:

the Olympics are going to feature a lot of genuine excitement, but at a very high cost to the BC taxpayer;

the city's inhabitants (read: not visitors) will probably riot if Canada's men's hockey team doesn't win the gold medal (after all, that's what happened when the Canucks lost the Stanley Cup in '94);

my nephew Oliver is a real handful and if he grows up to the size I expect, the Canucks will draft him in 2028 (I'l be reponsible for teaching him to skate in a couple of years);

I'll probably treat myself to a session of live PLO for my birthday in a couple of weeks (but the Olympic traffic jams will certainly make it difficult).

NB. The Canucks are really, really good this year. We might well get a change to avenge last year's loss to the Blackhawks in the playoffs. Which means I'll likely have some bets on the series and try to get even myself!

A late Christmas present

2009-12-31T16:58:00.000-08:00

I'm a first-time uncle. My nephew, named Oliver (seen above in the arms of his maternal grandmother), was nearly two weeks overdue before making a loud appearance into the world the morning of December 30th, and he was a hefty 10 lbs 7 ounces. Both he and her mother (my younger sister) are doing fine after a stressful delivery and a tense couple of days.

I have to admit, this makes me reconsider my stance not to become a parent (let's ignore all the necessary intermediate steps for that to happen! I'm indulging in sentimentality). I'm very proud of everyone involved.

Bonus pic!

Roy Halladay is a Philadelphia Philly

2009-12-16T13:51:00.001-08:00

No, really. He is.

Time to don the mourning black as others rejoice.

It's been a long long time since 1993. Sigh.

A WPBT substitute

2009-12-14T09:28:00.000-08:00

Sadly, I didn't get to go to the WPBT this year. I had so much fun last year in my first appearance, that I was really gutted that I couldn't make the trip. However, family duties prevented a weekend in Las Vegas.

Oddly enough, I did manage to play some online poker hands and my own personal Ferguson experiment is going well (I've turned $5 into $250 during the past two weeks). I've been steadily crushing the low-stakes mixed games, with some occasional time put in at the micro-stakes PLO tables. Here is an example of the latter, where I actually hit one of many redraws on a nice freeroll opportunity:

In the second hand, I scooped a nice Stud eight-or-better pot (by far my most profitable game in the 7-game mix) and spent five minutes in chat baiting an apoplectic victim who didn't understand why I capped the betting on fourth street vs. multiple opponents ...

Limit Stud H/L

*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to Noobitronix [4s]
Dealt to Lefty_Two3 [Ah]
Dealt to DJrabibit [Ad]
Dealt to Brizzy23 [3h]
Dealt to KGB_05 [8d]
Dealt to PirateLawyer [8h 5h] [7d]
Brizzy23 is low with [3h]
Brizzy23 brings in for $0.05
KGB_05 folds
PirateLawyer calls $0.05 - I want to see a flop cheaply with many opponents in the hand
Noobitronix folds
Lefty_Two3 completes it to $0.20
DJrabibit calls $0.20
Brizzy23 folds
PirateLawyer calls $0.15 - I can still see a flop profitably three-handed at this price
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to Lefty_Two3 [Ah] [7c]
Dealt to DJrabibit [Ad] [6c]
Dealt to PirateLawyer [8h 5h 7d] [6h] - boom! time to get busy with a disguised OESD; this is now quite a scooping hand opportunity
Lefty_Two3 bets $0.20
DJrabibit calls $0.20
PirateLawyer raises to $0.40
Lefty_Two3 raises to $0.60
DJrabibit calls $0.40
PirateLawyer raises to $0.80
Lefty_Two3 calls $0.20
DJrabibit calls $0.20
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to Lefty_Two3 [Ah 7c] [Jc]
Dealt to DJrabibit [Ad 6c] [3d]
Dealt to PirateLawyer [8h 5h 7d 6h] [Ks]
Lefty_Two3 checks
DJrabibit checks
PirateLawyer bets $0.40
Lefty_Two3 calls $0.40
DJrabibit calls $0.40
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to Lefty_Two3 [Ah 7c Jc] [As]
Dealt to DJrabibit [Ad 6c 3d] [9s]
Dealt to PirateLawyer [8h 5h 7d 6h Ks] [4h] - Eureka!
Lefty_Two3 bets $0.40
DJrabibit calls $0.40
PirateLawyer raises to $0.80
Lefty_Two3 calls $0.40
DJrabibit calls $0.40
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to PirateLawyer [8h 5h 7d 6h Ks 4h] [Qh] - bonus flush!
Lefty_Two3 checks
DJrabibit checks
PirateLawyer bets $0.40
Lefty_Two3 calls $0.40
DJrabibit has 15 seconds left to act
DJrabibit folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PirateLawyer shows [Qh 8h 7d 6h Ks 4h 5h] a flush, Queen high, for high and 8,7,6,5,4, for low
Lefty_Two3 mucks
PirateLawyer wins the high pot ($3.63) with a flush, Queen high
PirateLawyer wins the low pot ($3.62) with 8,7,6,5,4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.63 | Rake $0.38
Seat 1: Lefty_Two3 mucked [Kh Kc Ah 7c Jc As Tc] - HI: two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 2: DJrabibit folded on 7th St.
Seat 3: Brizzy23 folded on 3rd St.
Seat 4: KGB_05 folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: PirateLawyer showed [Qh 8h 7d 6h Ks 4h 5h] and won ($7.25) with HI: a flush, Queen high; LO: 8,7,6,5,4
Seat 6: Noobitronix folded on 3rd St.

I'm sure those of you who went to Vegas had a lot more fun than I did, but I had to make lemonade with the lemons I was dealt. I'm anxiously awaiting all the trip reports to hear about all the debauchery I missed out on.

7-Game Mix Experiment

2009-11-24T20:16:00.000-08:00

I guess it's time for my monthly poker post. I certainly hope to revitalize this blog, once I get the time to decide what topics I'd like to focus writing about in this space. For now, a mildly interesting poker hand history will have to suffice in the interim.

I recently began dabbling in microstakes mixed games online, as I haven't had much time recently to hit the local cardrooms for any live play. So far, the results have been very good even though the profits are trifling in magnitude. I've enjoyed experimenting with alternate strategies and practicing hand reading fundamentals against a lot of really bad players.

I decided to get tricky here with a premium hand. Comments? (For all four of you LHE enthusiasts still reading this blog, do you think the line I took here was good exploitive play against an unsophisticated villain (it certainly wasn't optimal!), or was it a fancy play which I should purge from my arsenal?

Edit: Bonus material

Hand #2 (pure brag):

I wish this hand had been at higher stakes! It's nice to get paid off on the proper side of a cooler for a change.

A golden opportunity missed

2009-11-15T09:51:00.000-08:00

I came within five seconds of scoring four tickets to the premiere event of the Olympics, the gold medal men's hockey game. Sadly, a five-second delay as my computer froze was just enough time for the window of opportunity to close on the #$!% online lottery and I had to settle for the consolation prize, the bronze medal game.

A fiasco in the offing

2009-10-16T15:00:00.000-07:00

I haven't blogged about the Olympics much, and that is going to change significantly as Vancouver is gearing up for the mayhem that is going to ensue.

Be it resolved that: the upcoming Winter Olympics will, inevitably, be a fiscal disaster of monumental proportions for the city of Vancouver.

The city has already lost a big lawsuit to displaced businesses who were harmed by three years of bad planning, dishonesty, and awful decisions relating to a major construction project which tore up a main artery of the city. Many businesses relocated or failed because of the delays ... and the courts quite properly found the city to be at fault. As you might have guessed, the decision is under appeal, but the defendants have had to pay interim damages.

And don't get me started at what the province chose to do in upgrading the Sea to Sky highway. A much more progressive, efficient, and greener option was ignored: build a traditional rail line to Whistler which goes right to downtown Vancouver. As an avid skier, I can swear that the convenience offered by this option would have been embraced by many during the winter months, reduce traffic on the picturesque but dangerous highway in adverse driving conditions, and would not have been more expensive than the final bill for the highway upgrades that BC taxpayers will be responsible for.

All this being said, I'm honest enough to admit that had I won tickets to the men's gold medal hockey game, I would probably feel the pain of future tax bills a little less keenly.

Some New Shadows Over Innsmouth

2009-09-29T20:00:00.000-07:00

I'm sure that the author whose gothic novel inspired this webcomic would have been taken aback by this pastiche. After all, in 1931 even H.P. Lovecraft's zany imagination didn't conceive of stories featuring a protagonist who was a troubled young mother with supernatural powers who bore a child out of wedlock and who worked as an auto mechanic. But he would have recognized a lot of the other elements populating this homage.

If you're a fan of the Cthulhu Mythos, this comic is a must-read. And if you're not, you should still check it out.

Back to basics: minimizing your losses

2009-09-25T23:02:00.000-07:00

I didn't manage that today. I could try to come up with original content, but why bother when someone else has already summarized what happens when you can't win a pot at a good LHE table? Like him, I won precisely one pot at showdown in approximately five hours, even though I flopped some very big made hands and draws. I made a couple of crying river calls, but I don't believe I made any significant errors all night.

Best decision of the night? Quitting when I hit my stop-loss (for only the second time in my poker career), rather than reach into my wallet (even though the game was still excellent). Rules are rules and I needed to get out of there and fight another day. The game will still be there tomorrow.

Piaf said it best: Non, je ne regrette rien!

Back to basics: maximizing your wins

2009-09-20T20:15:00.000-07:00

I've been working on incorporating thinner value bets on the river in my game during the past month or so in my regular LHE play at my local cardroom with the stated goal of maximizing my true winrate -- although, this increases your variance, which is a consequence one must learn to cope with. This guy's last couple of blog posts gave me a prod in posting a few thoughts about this concept, since optimal play on the big-bet streets in LHE is every bit as important as it is in PLO or NLHE. Delving into these psychological issues is, I think, a key improvement to make once you have reached a certain plateau and are looking for ways to grow one's poker game to a new, higher level. If your "A-Game" can become even better, and you master ways to play your best game more often, you should see better results in the long run.

Here is a recent example from my regular game where I think I clearly wussed out and missed out on significant value. After I raked in the pot, I forced myself to sit out for an orbit as I mulled over the mistakes I had made and refocussed for the remainder of my session.

I found myself on the button with AcKc. Naturally, I put in a re-raise to three bets when given the opportunity, as a player in late position had put in a raise over a couple of limpers. The small blind, a middle-aged Asian woman who was lighting money on fire that night, although she is probably a small long-term winner in the game from what I've seen, called three bets cold and five players saw the flop (with about 8 big bets already in the middle). The beauty of this situation is that I had well over my fair share of pot equity; with a lot of dead money involved, I was in a good spot with position and a premium hand.

The flop came down KQJ with two hearts (and one club, for a backdoor nut flush draw). It was checked to me, I bet, the small blind check-raised and the original preflop raiser called two bets cold. I overcalled. The three of us saw the turn, which was an offsuit jack. She led out, the other player called, and I overcalled, even though I strongly suspected (due to past experience with these players and some fairly reliable tells) that I had the best hand. Consequently, it follows that I missed a raise for value against the range of hands my two opponents were playing, and I failed to charge all the drawing hands and worse made hands to outdraw me. This was a major error, to my mind. If I had been re-raised, I could safely throw AK away (I don't think either of the two players I was tussling with was capable of 3-betting a worse hand than mine); if I trusted my read at the time, I should follow through and attempt to maximize my equity whilst making a strong play with the benefit of position.

The river blanked and it was checked around. Again, I arguably missed a value bet, even though the board was scary. Why should I expect these players to check better hands than mine in this situation? Answer: I shouldn't, so I should bet for value and strongly consider bet-folding if I were check-raised on the end.

As it turned out, the small blind showed KhTh for missed straight and flush draws and the other player mucked, claiming to have held KTo. I played the river horribly, I think - nearly as badly as I misplayed the turn. Heck, you could even argue that I should have 3bet the flop (although the small blind would have been justified in capping it against me).

Comments on the larger issues are welcome, as well as duly-earned criticisms on how I butchered this hand.

As an aside, happily my local cardroom is regularly getting a 10-20 LHE game going Fri-Sun. I should be regularly playing in this game very soon and hopefully will be able to report back with some interesting hands during the next few months. The 5/5 PLO game still goes regularly and is good but I don't feel the time is right to take shots at that game, mostly due to expected variance issues given the fact that I am not properly rolled for it yet and would prefer not to have to rebuild my BR if I went on a string of losing five buyins.

March of the Queens

2009-09-08T22:04:00.000-07:00

It's been a long time since I posted an interesting poker hand for discussion. I was involved in such a hand a week ago that might generate some good arguments ... not that many of you play live limit hold'em cash games, but here goes ...

Last Saturday night, I found myself at my regular live 4/8 LHE kill game -- in fact, this hand took place during the session I mentioned in my previous post. I am up for the session and have consistently shown down winners. I have noticed that some of the players have begun to realize that when I raise preflop, I usually have a premium hand. The table is the usual mix of loose players who will play any two cards preflop. Postflop the play becomes a bit more aggressive, but not significantly so.

In this particular hand, the UTG player limps in. He is an older player who is the epitome of the table. LAG preflop, TAG postflop, calling station when on the draw: very exploitable; I will always know where I stand. He pays off more than most with second best hands because he hates to be bluffed. I paid him off earlier with AA when he flopped a small set; I got my revenge soon afterwards by extracting maximum value in a kill pot with TPTK (where I held AQo in the big blind *with the kill* but I didn't re-raise preflop; the flop came queen-high with a flush draw and he called my turn check-raise and river value bet with worse). Four other players limp in and I look down at my cards and see QQ.

Because of my table image and innate dislike for being out of position, I check my option (there are sound arguments for raising here with a preflop equity edge, to be sure).

The flop comes down with a rainbow board of J98. The pot contains five small bets.

I check, looking for clues on how to proceed from the actions of my opponents. Depending what happens behind me, I was definitely planning to check-raise. Somewhat to my surprise given this dynamic flop, it is checked around. Before seeing the turn, I quickly formulate a plan of leading out almost 100% of the time.

The flop brings a very interesting card, a queen (no backdoor flush draws have materialized). So I've improved to top set in a very small pot, and it's reasonable to suppose that one of my four opponents might very well have improved to a straight. I decide to execute my plan and lead out, but this is a close decision. The UTG player immediately raises. I decide that if it's folded around to me I should reluctantly fold the river unimproved, because I think my opponent is never bluffing here (given my read of the situation, this is a fairly easy laydown but I'm not in the habit of regularly folding top set before seeing all five board cards). However, a third player calls two bets cold, throwing a new wrinkle into this situation, and I opt to close the action with a trivially easy call. The pot is now 8.5 big bets.

The river is a jack, giving me the overfull. I lead out hoping that I will get raised by my left-hand opponent, but the UTG player pauses for a few seconds and only calls, the third player folds, and I drag the 10.5 BB pot.

Comments on how this hand was played on every street are welcome. What, since folding is not a palatable decision at any point, would you do differently to maximize your positive expectation in this situation and others like it?

Misadventures in babysitting

2009-08-31T21:10:00.000-07:00

On Saturday night, I decided to withdraw some funds from my other bank account -- the 4/8 LHE with full kill game that runs at a local casino downtown. Seeing as how I'm on hiatus from online play, I've been trying to play at least a few hours per week when I can stand to be indoors during the summer. My results have been very good overall -- the game plays like 8/16, and I'm putting up a nice 7BB/hr winrate for 2009, and averaging 8 or 9 winning sessions for every ten I play -- and I'm sure I'll put in even more hours when the summer weather turns to the typical Vancouver autumn rain.

My planned withdrawal went as planned -- I cashed out with four more racks than I started with, which is good work for a relatively short session of about four hours -- but I also witnessed some entertaining shenanigans during the course of the evening which were definitely worthy of a blog post.

As I've mentioned before, this casino happens to spread the biggest public game in the city, a full-ring 5/5 PLO with a max 200 BB buyin. I have kept a close eye on this game throughout the summer with the goal of taking a shot or two or four when the time is ripe.

So as I'm waiting near the door for my seat to come open at my regular game, I wander over to see how the PLO game is doing. Who should I happen to spot in the one seat but a minor Canadian poker celebrity. He didn't have a million dollars in front of him, unlike here, and he wasn't facing Phil Ivey, but it seemed as if he was in the midst of booking a solid winning session against a lineup that wasn't exactly a murderer's row of poker talent.

Soon afterwards I got called to my game, which I was thankful for as the list behind me had swelled to 30+ names deep due to a large 105K bad beat jackpot. This was a causal factor which would lead to quite the fiasco later on. Little did I know that something unusual was about to occur...

Now, it just so happens that the 4/8 kill game I play is located at the front of this rather dingy poker room. Once you walk up a couple of steps into a small foyer, you immediately take a 90-degree turn into the poker room. On your left is a railing and a small elevated area containing four or five tables for the "big game", the 5/5 PLO, and a few 2/5 NL games. Immediately in front of you and to your right is the 4/8 kill game I was seated at, and rows of 1/2 NL and some additional 4/8 LHE tables towards the back, with the cage located at the back right corner of the room. I happened to be seated in the five seat, which gave me a direct view of the entrance.

Poker players being the degenerates that they are, often congregate outside the front entrance to smoke while they are waiting to play. And this night, there were a lot of impatient and desperate gamblers looking for a shot at the big jackpot. So, about three hours later two seats opened up at my table, including the seat to my immediate right. As I am listening to the floor call two fresh names to come sit down at my table, my expectation is that these seats will be filled promptly and the game will proceed with a full complement of ATMs (oops! I mean to say respected fellow players).

Then I see something bizarre out of the corner of my eye.

Now, I wouldn't be exaggerating much if I claimed to be legally blind. I am quite near-sighted and have had to wear glasses since the sixth grade. So it was a near-miracle that I spotted a twenty-something dark-skinned guy peer through the front glass doors of the room, identify the empty seat on my right, and execute a mad sprinting dash over to sit down in it, pulling out about half a rack of chips from his coat pocket as he sat down. It took him about five seconds to pull off this stunt, and as I began to gape at him I realized he'd just done a fair impersonation of a shifty running back scuttling and bobbing and weaving away from would-be tacklers on a football field. Which is not something you expect to see in a poker room.

Of course, the proverbial fecal matter hit the fan about two minutes later once the players who had been called found their way over and discovered one of their rightful seats had been usurped. By a rude sprinter who refused to vacate "his" seat and began haranguing the dealer about the "dumb" rules of the poker room.

Our resident NFL running back exhibited a fine command of invective and strongly reeked of liquor as the promptly summoned floorman stood over him, quite properly directed the dealer not to deal him any cards, and told him in no uncertain terms that he'd have to get up and wait for his proper turn in line for one of the seats in the regular 4/8 LHE game. Since, as it turned out, he wasn't even on the list for the kill game. This guy clearly wasn't playing with a full deck, and I was almost sorry to see him go.

Once he was out of sight, however, he soon went clean out of my mind as I turned my attention back to enlarging my withdrawal. However, not 30 minutes later the climax of this little drama came to pass. This incident, you see, was merely the prologue.

You see, our desperate drunken football player had eventually been called to a seat in the regular 4/8 game. And wouldn't you know it but he soon went off on a full-blown tirade, demanding to be awarded a pot he had no right to at the top of his voice. Some chips were flung, a full baker's dozen floor people materialized at the scene, and in short order he was ejected from the casino cursing all the while as the staff attempted to babysit him until a taxi arrived. And on his way out, he assaulted the shift supervisor (who had called him a cab and had tried to defuse the situation as best he could) with a few sharp elbows to the chest worthy of a professional NHL pest looking to instigate a fight. I went to a poker room and a hockey game broke out ...

All I can say is, he's lucky criminal charges weren't pressed. I certainly wouldn't have offered my services to defend him in court.

With all the excitement over with, I got back to my profitable endeavour of making money from the less vocal, but no less desperate, LHE players who were looking for a share of the large jackpot for a little while longer before I called it a night. Please, keep chasing your inside straights against my made hands. It's a good idea ...

As I walked out the doors of the casino into the fresh night air, I smiled to myself. There's always something new to see at a poker table. For a while there, I thought I might have been about to see my first arrest, but that will have to wait its turn for a future poker session.

Poker bloggers know baseball? I didn't think so

2009-08-18T17:35:00.000-07:00

Some Philly-centric bloggers were quick to pillory J.P. Ricciardi, the Blue Jays GM, for the simple fact that he didn't give away Roy Halladay to the Phillies. (Of course, they didn't say Mark Shapiro of the Cleveland Indians should be fired for trading them Cliff Lee for a song, either. Hmmm!) Subsequently, the Blue Jays allowed Alex Rios to be claimed on waivers by the Chicago White Sox and dealt away the aging-but-still-good Scott Rolen for prospects, which were moves that were met with derision by some demoralized Jays' fans and a lot of criticism by the media. I take a contrarian view: these were necessary moves that were mandated by corporate ownership to reduce payroll -- the Jays are still stuck with one albatross contract, the vastly ovepaid Vernon Wells -- and give them the potential means to keep Roy Halladay as a Blue Jay for life -- this would be a very good thing.

(Okay, maybe I'm being too hard on Riggs. He might not actually be on record as saying Ricciardi should be let go.)

This quote sums up the perfectly rational executive Ricciardi happens to be, and I subscribe whole-heartedly to his philosophy of building a competitive team in the tough AL East division, given the financial limitations he's forced to operate with (now if only Vernon Wells were to be claimed on waivers ...).

Q: How do you view your team after all of this dust has cleared?

A: We like our team, we really do. We like the nucleus we have in place. We think Hill and Lind are going to be stars and are on their way. We think Snider is going to be a very good player. We like our team. We have a very good catcher in Arencibia coming. We like our arms on the mound. There’s a lot of really good things happening here. What I think we’ve realized is the reality of the division. We know it, but we’ve come to realize it even more so. This is not a division you can be good in, you have to be great in it to make the playoffs [my emphasis]. We’ve been good the last three years. The ownership has been great to us. They’ve allowed us to spend some money over the last three years, and the last three years we were high 80’s in wins. We’re not good enough to win the division.

What we have to do is take a step back and start looking at ways that we can start building to get great. I think with the Cecils and the Romeros and all the young arms we have, along with the Hills and the Linds and the players we have coming we have a really good foundation and nucleus to get there. But I think we have to be smart about the fact that right now we’re not great and you have to be great to win this division.

I think it’s extremely important. You have to realize that we’re a club that had a $20 million cut in payroll this year. So with that savings going into next year, along with the Rolen savings along with the players we acquired for Rolen, we were able to hopefully utilize that money to address some of our needs. I’ll only be able to answer the question over the next five years how that money works in our favor.

Going forward, Ricciardi can either trade Halladay if he a) isn't able to sign Halladay to an extension or b) gets an offer he thinks is fair market value for the most reliably excellent pitcher in baseball. And because the Blue Jays' team strength is young pitching, they can afford to make a decision from a position of strength, not weakness.

It's nice when others do your planning for you

2009-08-18T11:14:00.000-07:00

In this case, CK & BamBam have lined up the details for WBG golf in early December. It's time to hit the range.

Bonus: pinball conveniently nearby. I promised myself I would go back, since I had such a good experience the first time I went there with fellow bloggers, including one who posted an amazing recap of the adventure.

Now if only I can persuade my father to make the trip ... I know he'd enjoy both activities.

Motivation? A prop bet is in order

2009-08-04T11:07:00.000-07:00

Resolution: turn back the clock and regain youthful fitness.

Additional motivation: seeing a friend and fellow blogger blow a fuse about excess weight.

Solution: a prop bet.

Objective: Shed flab;

Terms: Weigh-in either at next Winter Gathering (if both parties attend) or January 1st, 2010 (with results verified by acceptable third party);

Targets: PL needs to weigh in at 160 lbs; Riggs 220 lbs;

Stakes: If either party fails to make their target weight, they will give the other party a bottle of single malt Scotch of the other's choosing (price limit TBD).

If anyone else wants to participate, please drop me a line in the comments and I'll add you to the bet.

No Doc in the House?

2009-07-29T09:31:00.000-07:00

Rumours are swirling that Roy Halladay will soon be an ex-Jay. Rogers executives have made Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi's life a living hell by publicly stating that they want to control costs on the baseball operations budget, and as Philly-area blogger Riggs has mentioned, it looks as if his Phillies have gone in another direction (towards acquiring the Tribe's fine starter, Cliff Lee).

What does this mean? The unthinkable might happen: Roy Halladay might be traded to Boston.

I predict that if this happens, the Red Sox will become, by far, the favourite to win the World Series. And the Phillies will be left wondering what might have been because they wouldn't pay the freight for the best starting pitcher on the market.

Edit: Phillies did in fact trade for Lee. Notably they did not give up any of their three highest-rated prospects, but did give up four of their top ten. I do in fact think this was a good deal for both Philly & Cleveland. Only time will tell if the Phillies succeed in playoffs ... in their situation they absolutely had to trade for a veteran starter, and they got one.

Who needs agility?

2009-07-26T17:11:00.000-07:00

Life keeps throwing curveballs; or

I took a duck to the face at two hundred and fifty knots.

Always something new

2009-07-19T19:52:00.001-07:00

I saw something last week during a live 4/8 LHE session that I've never seen before. I'm curious if any of my vast readership has witnessed something similar ...

Two players were dealt pocket aces at my table. They get into a raising war preflop, obviously, and somewhat to my surprise they didn't pick up any hitchikers desperate to gamble it up to see a flop to crack a big pair. One of the live players then asked if the betting is capped at four bets now that everyone else has folded and the pot is now headsup. Dealer announces no, the betting is uncapped. The floor is consulted and verifies that the dealer is correct.

A few raises latter -- about 9 or 10 -- and one of the players involved tells the other that he's willing to go all-in (for about $400). The other player acquiesces, having about the same amount behind. They both push their chips over the line. So we now have your standard $830-ish pot at a 4/8 table with all the betting complete before the flop has been dealt. Each flips over AA.

Sadly, the flop was an anticlimax, featuring three different suits, which put the kibosh on what would have been a jaw-dropping four-flush scenario if someone got lucky.

I just sat back in amazement, laughing my guts out. I just wish we could have had a sweat for the turn and river.

Poker. Always something new under the sun.

Get Your Ace Here, redux

2009-07-19T15:21:00.000-07:00

Today's gem pitched by Roy Halladay speaks for itself as proof why the Jays should either A) keep their ace starter; B) ask for a mint of young talent in return from any team with aspirations to win the World Series this year or next.

Just your standard complete game six-hitter in a 3-1 victory over the best team in the American League.

I had to nod my head in agreement when the Red Sox manager was quoted as saying he wanted to see Halladay traded a few days ago, and to the National League. If I were the Red Sox, I surely would want to see that happen (unless I was able to trade for him myself and build a juggernaut for the increased probability of winning the title).

Oops, this wasn't the unbeatable jackace!

2009-07-15T09:43:00.000-07:00

This hand caught my eye on Poker News as I followed the Main Event coverage yesterday. I didn't realize it was such a donkament at this stage, as 28 players were still playing at this stage of the tournament ...

Buchman Opens-Ships Three Million
Eric Buchman decided not to make one of his more normal raises, but instead open-shoved slightly over three million into the middle. Jonathan Tamayo asked for a count and when he found out, made the call.

Tamayo tabled JsJh and then the dealer turned over Buchman's hand -- AhTh. The crowd sprung to their feet to watch the action as Tamayo's rail cheered.

The flop was gin for Buchman when it came 9h7h2h. Buchman is rarely emotional, but again slapped his hands together and yelled, "Yes!"

The turn was the 6s which officially ended things. The river completed the board with the 6c and Tamayo sent the chips over.

Reasons why open-shoving a 30 big blind stack like this was a horrible play:

1) There were at least five players with fewer chips at this point;

2) When they lose one more player they will stop the tourney for the night;

3) There is a 100K pay jump once they lose one more player;

4) Making it to Day 8 of the ME will earn you more TV time and sponsorship dollars;

5) You are putting your tournament life at risk if someone wakes up with a better hand.

Can anyone come up with an argument for why this was a good play? Was this the wrong move at the right time, and was Tamayo a spiritual descendant of the Cincinnati Kid up against Buchman's Lancey Howard?

NB. Buchman is currently the chip leader with 14 players remaining.

Get Your Ace Here

2009-07-09T00:30:00.000-07:00

And not just any ace: the consensus within major league baseball is that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the big leagues. Yes, Johan Santana has won more Cy Young awards. Yes, Tim Lincecum is a superb young starter. Yes, Zack Greinke is putting up a phenomenal season for the sad-sack Kansas City Royals.

That being said, "Doc" has an unmatched pedigree of effectiveness, stamina, and character. Not only that, he is signed through the end of the 2010 season at a below-market salary of 15.75MM. (Essentially, he's so good he's actually underpaid, which just goes to show you that the average ML player is overpaid.)

And this week, the general manager of the Blue Jays, J.P. Ricciardi, spoke to the media and said that he'd listen to trade offers if teams enquired about Halladay. (Halladay has a full no-trade clause in his contract that he'd have to waive before any deal could be finalized.) And this caused a predictable furor around baseball, even though this isn't anything new. Ricciardi didn't say he was looking to move his best player; he clearly stated that he'd have to be overwhelmed by any trade offer before he'd seriously consider approaching Halladay and asking him to waive his no-trade clause.

So, why should the Jays trade their most popular and irreplaceable player? There are a few reasons why it might be a good idea.

1) Halladay would fetch a mint in young blue-chip prospects. The brain trusts of would-be contenders are fully aware that Halladay is a sure thing; incremental improvements for would-be playoff teams are hard to come by and extremely valuable in financial terms (increased playoff revenue, etc.). As cited above, marginal wins are easily worth 5MM per win; Roy Halladay has an established performance level of 6-7 wins a year, highest in baseball amongst starting pitchers, so he's roughly worth 40-50 MM of prospects before the Jays would give him up. (An early rumour from a source within the St. Louis Cardinals: "Halladay? We'd give (Ricciardi) our minor league system and ask him to circle five names."

NB. If Roy Halladay didn't sign a contract extension with his new team, he would be a Type A free agent and the team that lost him would receive two first round compensation picks: a nice insurance policy softening the cost of trading for him, and they'd still get 1.5 seasons of superlative performance from him in the meantime.

2) The Jays have budget problems in the near future. They currently have two outfielders signed to albtross contracts, which severely hampers their ability to construct their team.

3) The Jays are in the toughest division in baseball. Essentially, unless they can construct one of the two or three best teams in the majors, they have no chance of making the playoffs. This is a huge challenge that cannot be overstated. The Yankees spend so much money on their roster that they are always in contention for the playoffs. The Red Sox are the same. The Rays have built a juggernaut after ten years of top-five draft picks, and even the Orioles have begun to field a very competitive team after many years of mediocrity. The strength of schedule in the AL East is ridiculously high. So, they might have to take a step back (they have been stuck in the 6-10 range recently, which has meant they've only been finishing third or fourth in the division) in order to take two steps forward.

4) The Jays' chief organizational strength is young pitching. If they can continue to churn out young pitchers who can do a credible job, transforming Halladay into some blue-chip hitting prospects (especially a shortstop, a huge organizational weakness), has its appeal. They can't replace Halladay, but they still might be better off from a team-building standpoint without him.

My head can come up with some logical reasons why the Jays should strongly consider trading Roy Halladay if the price is right.

But my heart doesn't care. I hope they can find other solutions to their problems and keep the best pitcher in franchise history right where he belongs.

I won't be defending this pirate ...

2009-06-26T12:28:00.000-07:00

No, I'd find myself hauled up on charges if I ever found the thief who stole my bike yesterday.

I'm not a happy camper, to say the least, and this is going to stick in my craw for a while.

(Ironically, it was stolen from a bike rack in front of the Law Society. Walking outside to discover the shredded lock lying on the ground all by its lonesome, ruined self was not a fun moment.)

Omaha is often a synonym for pain, redux

2009-06-12T22:20:00.000-07:00

First of all, congrats to CK who managed to cash in the World Series in the OE/SE 2.5K event! It sounds as if she got unlucky in a couple of big hands or she could have gone even further. I look forward to reading her tournament recap.

Myself, I have been suffering through an 8 -- hah, make that sixteen! -- buy-in downswing in my online PLO experiment. I'm going to do a session review and see if I can spot some leaks, or merely have to attribute the poor results mostly to variance. I certainly know I was mostly getting the money in ahead when I was playing for stacks, so I suspect the latter.

Edit

it's the latter. See this as a typical example where I get it in as a 70% favourite and lose:

I'm glad I didn't have any bets on the Cup Finals. I would have bet on Detroit but the Penguins managed to beat the Red Wings at Joe Louis in game seven.

If the weather holds this weekend I'll be spending nearly all of it outside playing disc golf, riding the trails, or at the beach. Enjoying summer activities outdoors takes precedence over pokering, to be sure!

Omaha is often a synonym for pain

2009-06-08T23:10:00.000-07:00

Discuss villain's play here. Was his line sensible vs. the range of hands I could reasonably have?

Needless to say, I was ruefully pleased he didn't have a full stack to start the hand. It dulled the pain ... somewhat.

I actually turned a profit during this session, but this subtracted hugely from my bottom line. I have found that PLO8 is one of the most reliable, low-variance ways to build the ol' BR ... this example of a sick beat notwithstanding, because I love this sort of action and I do hold up my fair share of the time.

Summer musings

2009-06-08T10:13:00.000-07:00

June has been a strange month so far.

The good:

Vancouver weather has been great and I've been playing a lot of disc golf.

An old friend has moved back to town, escaping from a bad job in the rural wilds of Alberta.

My sister and her husband just purchased a new condo and I had some fun pouring over all the documents as a refresher in solicitor's work in a real property transaction.

I hear this local blogger has actually done some wheeling and dealing for a change. Who knows if he'll blog again any time soon though.

The bad:

My fourth live session of LHE went south in a hurry. -40BBs as I lost all five big pots I played with sets and overpairs that got run down. (On the plus side, the game was fantastic and it was variance that did me in, not my decision-making.)

I got my car towed by parking oh, five meters from an intersection near my place yesterday (the law says park 6+ meters away). Of the 15k illegally-parked vehicles in my neighbourhood, I got picked on. A fun $112.90 siphoned out of my pocket.

The "meh":

Still no concrete developments as I am looking to change jobs. Don't want to defend pirates - I mean, criminals - any longer so that means I am kicking the tires elsewhere and waiting to hear back on some leads. But I should have this sorted out by the end of the summer.

Hold On ....

2009-05-28T19:53:00.000-07:00

I just couldn't ... not when it mattered.

I didn't think games this consistently beatable existed anymore, but in my third live LHE session (3 hours in length) of the month I booked a +38BB win vs. a table full of Crasians of various ages (Vancouver does have a relatively high Asian population; and we all know they are predisposed to gamble it up).

I kept some good notes on this session and the telltale sign that it was an excellent game was that I ran poorly despite winning that much.

In sequence, here are five notable hands that took place during the session. Two of them I won, and three of them I lost.

Hand #1: As was often customary, seven players each paid two small bets to see the flop. I was on the button with 5h6h. The flop came down 7-high with two diamonds giving me a gutshot. Someone bet and *everyone* called. The turn was another diamond and not a picture card. Surprisingly, it got checked around. The river was another rag and everyone checked to me, so ... I bet. Everyone folded. Since I was a solid winner at this point I opted, somewhat uncharacteristically, to show the bluff, to more than a few murmurs of amazement and some laughter. My motive for doing so was to induce more action the next time I got a premium hand.

Hand #2: On the very next deal, I get AA in the cut-off. You can't script this any better, I thought to myself. Sure enough, I raised it up and I got three callers, including an extremely loose payoff wizard three to my left who would regularly call with absolutely anything and wanted to see every flop. On the river, his 9h2h had improved to bottom two pair and he check-calls me and I get the bad news. I flash the AA and he acts all surprised as he collects the pot (5-outer).

Hand #3: I raise a bunch of limpers with AcJc on the button and get a bunch of callers. The flop comes down J-high and the BB (old grizzled Crasian) leads out, I pop him, he 3-bets. He leads out on the turn and the river and spikes two pair on the end with KJ. I run goot (3-outer).

Hand #4: I lose the big one. The kill was on and a young Crasian wearing an old KVOS baseball cap had the kill button UTG. I see a spot to create a ton of dead money so I re-raise from the cut-off with a small pair (44). Six players cap it preflop with the UTG kill player ramming and jamming with me. The flop comes down KQ4 rainbow. If there's one thing I believe in, it is playing small sets fast. Three of us cap the flop and we force the other three out of the pot. The turn is a deuce and both players check to me; I bet thnking there is absolutely no way I'm beat here ... and they both call. The river is a nine (JT got there) and it gets checked to me, I bet again, UTG calls and the MP player folds. UTG player announces "I have a set". My heart sinking, I say "So do I" and table my fours. He flips over ... 99. Goodbye, 48BB pot. (2-outer that really stung)

My 14 BB profit for the session evaporated in one fell swoop and I'm back down to my starting stack.

Undeterred, I battled back and win some pots (97ss was a very good hand for me several times), and I was able to play AK on the button vs. the villain from #4 for maximum value with a AJT flop, forcing him to fold QQ to a river raise after he'd taken the lead with a preflop 3-bet and I had just kept calling his bets on the first two streets. Then I get some revenge in Hand #5, another kill pot where again I had good table position. I held the mighty 5c7c and take down a juicy 28BB pot when I flopped a double-gutter on an Ad3s4d board, got there on the turn when an off-suit 6 fell, and was able to milk some extra big bets from two aces-up hands.

All in all, my wallet continues to grow fatter and the 5/5 PLO game inches ever closer. I may have to rethink my plans though ... I don't know that I can reliably beat that game for $100/hr with anywhere near the consistency I've shown so far in the LHE, and the variance issue is important when comparing fixed-bet to big-bet games. Even with losing a huge pot to a 22:1 shot I came out well ahead overall; in PLO I would lose my whole stack and have to rebuy. As long as I can book the wins at this rate, I'll stick with the LHE.

Old School, redux

2009-05-25T23:18:00.000-07:00

Played a short second session at local casino. Same juicy soft 4/8 LHE w/ full kill. I scouted 5/5 PLO game again as I waited for my seat. Game looked promising, same as last time. Majority of players seemed to buy in for the full 200BB maximum. I witnessed the one shorty maneuver majority of his stack in preflop (holding the obvious AAxx) vs. a single LAGtard playing a poor rundown hand -- AA was cracked. Saw several other fundamental mistakes made as I skulked in the corner.

The LHE session featured a fun migration pattern where I started in the 5s and was able, over time, to progressively slide down to the 8s to get a better view of the table. Each time I slid down, I would have more and more racks of chips to move with me. Other players would then request a seat change to my old seat in hopes of getting lucky.

Things did not go well right at the beginning, however. After I posted and folded my first set of blinds I woke up to red aces on the button. Six players (almost all Crasians of various ages) capped preflop and I ended up folding to a double check-raise on the Qh9h3s flop. I make a reluctant fold and watch in disbelief as a mere top pair hand (Q6off or some such trash) held up vs. a bare eight-high flush draw.

Fortunately I shake it off and play my best for the next 2.5 hours and book a 40BB profit. I extracted maximum value from various hands, including a flopped trips hand (ye olde BB special, the T2off) where I was able to get in three bets on the flop and two more streets of value vs. queens up, a flopped Broadway straight vs. flopped two pair, a nice river bluff with KQ unimproved set up by a preflop 3-bet vs. a weak-tight player, and one nice big juicy kill pot where I turned trips and was able to check-raise the one young 25 year-old Crasian woman (the only player who regularly straddled) who exhibited aggro postflop play with ace-high. The betting line was pretty hilarious. I was in early position with Ah2h and several players paid 3 bets to see a flop of 8c6s2c. I led out and got two callers. Turn was a 2s. I led out and Crasian raised. Headsup to the river, which was a king. I check, she bets, I raise, she grumbles and pays off with top pair.

Some of the conversations I had with players sitting near me were hysterical. There was one very nice, but clearly clueless fiftyish Caucasian man in the 10s who gave off innumerable tells. (Needless to say, he went broke several times and I tried to play as many pots as possible against him with some isolation plays when I had positional advantage.) By the time I moved over to the 8s we had chatted pleasantly about various topics. I had already observed him make many horrible postflop calls as he chased any possible draw. He would raise non-nut flushes and fold to heavy action despite getting over 12:1 on a final river call heads up. Perhaps my favourite kernel of information that I gleaned from him was in a three-way pot on the flop where he defended his big blind to my button raise with presto. Flop came down A34. It was checked around to me and I saw him clearly get four chips ready for a call. I was mildly concerned with the third player, who seemed to be semi-competent Crasian who actually played decently postflop. So I checked behind. On the turn target led out and was called, so I threw away my hand. Afterwards, I casually pumped him for information by saying that I thought about betting the flop and had noticed he was all ready to call. He replied in all seriousness: "Well, I had a gutshot straight draw, so I wasn't folding." (Note: the pot contained only seven small bets.)

Find these players whenever you can and play against them as much as you can. Several players at my table rebought at a furious rate; I was happily raking in their chips at a fast pace. They are contributing heavily to my PLO fund. So far I have a ridiculous 9BB/hr winrate.

PL08 Exercise

2009-05-22T23:25:00.000-07:00

[Edit re: Hand #1 -- ran equity calculations and found that I was money favourite on the flop. And have enough equity preflop to continue vs. most AAxx hands in villain's range. Just didn't work out this time.]

This was a very interesting PLO8 hand, by my way of thinking. (Sure, the result may have sucked, but did I make +EV decisions on every street?)

The question becomes, does the hand play itself postflop?

Am I mistaken in my decision-making preflop?

Addendum (bad beat story):

sometimes you flop nut/2nd nut and get scooped. Blargh.

A dream of a thousand cats

2009-05-20T15:18:00.000-07:00

Today a fixture in my life vanished. Our family cat of twenty-one years had to be put to sleep. Picking up the telephone at lunch-time and listening to your distraught mother break the news that a beloved pet whose antics and unconditional love you've enjoyed since you were a teenager is gone ... what can I say, it was not a fun experience, to say the least. Was this unexpected news? No, I can't say that it was. Was this news sudden and painful? Yes.

I used to say that she behaved, as all good cats do, as if we were her humans. It was her world and we were a part of it.

Today the sun is shining in Vancouver and it's a picture perfect day. I wasn't working, which meant that I had some freedom to process this event however I saw fit. So I went for a walk on the beach, shed some tears, smiled at some young children playing as the tide rolled in. I went to my favourite coffee shop, bought a fancy cup o' joe, and made a silent toast.

Did I say my cat vanished today? I was wrong.

I have countless memories to treasure. They mostly revolve around a lot of cuddling, a lot of purring, a lot of sunbathing, and a lot of grooming, mixed in with yowls demanding attention and some spectacular leaps and sprints in younger days when she would take no prisoners to seize catnip or any fascinating object she wanted to capture. She was adorable. She was the runt of her litter, and was rescued from the local SPCA to live a long and happy life. I'll never forget how all four of us (my parents, my younger sister and me) all instantly bonded to this poor neglected kitten who was shunted aside and couldn't get enough milk from her mother. After we adopted her, she would constantly nuzzle and suck on your finger in persistent pleas for more milk. This inevitably led to someone going to the fridge to give her "just a little more" milk as we spoilt her shamelessly.

These memories will never die.

Carpe diem.

Old School: Limit Hold'Em

2009-05-15T10:28:00.000-07:00

It's not only on the Las Vegas strip that you'll find soft full-ring limit hold'em games. I hadn't played live poker since my first-ever blogger winter gathering last December, and I was hankering for some live play. Recent online shenanigans meant that I needed to get back on the horse and if that meant enduring the slower pace and other inconveniences of a second-rate public cardroom, so be it. So I found myself at Vancouver's downtown casino, not more than ten minutes' drive from my humble abode, and patiently waited for a seat in the biggest LHE game in the room - a 4/8 kill game. As soon as I sat down (in seat 3), I recognized this game was a gold mine. Tons of weak passive play, not many preflop raises, transparent opponents who would pay off TPGK on three streets ... this game had it all.

Unfortunately, I lost the first four pots (including two kill pots) I played so after three hours I was sitting with less than half my starting stack.

Then I was finally able to get some positive momentum. I actually got some cards (AA in a five-handed kill pot is a recipe to recoup some losses) and flopped some hands. When you can get in for one bet with suited connectors in late position, eventually you will rake in some monster pots. And that is what happened.

The first big pot featured crubs, which always get there. I called a raise in the big blind with the mighty 47cc getting about 8:1 on my money. The flop came down Kc8c5s. I checked, the player to my left bet, and two players called. I decided to check-raise with my flush draw + gutter. The original bettor called, and then the villain in seat 7 three-bet. But before I could put in my call, the dealer precipitously acted and dealt out the 6c on the turn! The floor was called, I inwardly winced as the card was set aside, the two of us put in our calls ... and I was rewarded as the Tc rolled off. Was there any doubt? So I check-called the turn, then finally donk-bet the river and was paid off by 9c7s and K5o. Crubs: good for what ails you.

The second one featured spades, which is assuredly the boss suit. Again, limped in with A8ss in late position. The flop came down 933 with two spades. The small blind led out and there were a couple of calls. The turn was a spade. Small blind led out again, I smooth called, and a loud drunk overcalled. The river blanked, the small blind led out yet again, I raised, the drunk called two bets cold, and the small blind reluctantly called. My hand was good as the drunk cheerfully flashed the KQss at the table.

Then the rush came as I capped off the night a solid winner with three more racks than I started with. At one point I kept the kill button and won five consecutive pots, the last three as the game was kicked up to 8/16. The first of the five was an amusing one. A Crasian sitting two to my left had built up from a paltry $80 to about $250 and proceeded to donate a bunch of it in my direction. My 89 of spades flopped an open-ended straight draw, got there on the turn with a spade flush redraw, and he went to war with a flopped bottom two pair -- raising me on the turn, and paying off my check-raise on the river even though a heart flush completed. And the next four hands, I just kept flopping something as the rest of the table missed, and got paid off twice by the young Asian kid sitting two to my right in seat one, who literally played 85% of his hands. He just didn't believe me or wanted to fulfill his role as the table payoff wizard as I showed him two pair and a straight to crush his meager holdings.

As the night came to a close, though, it was readily apparent to me that it was time to book the win. For one thing, I was inwardly harping at myself as fatigue caused me to miss about three clear value bets where I left money on the table. For another, another 4/8 LHE table broke and we got three new players. A nails-on-the-chalkboard late middle-aged woman with a thick Eastern European accent kept talking off my left ear and I couldn't successfully tune out her inane babble. Add the fact that the loud drunk to her left kept getting louder and more obnoxious, and my concentration began to waver even more. He kept asking the dealer how much he could bet on every street, and his comedy act wasn't getting any laughs from anyone. And as two of the table donators racked up, I followed suit, since I knew I was no longer playing my "A" game.

Part of me thinks I should start playing in the juicy 5/5 PLO game (max 1K buyin) that regularly runs here (they also sometimes get a 1/2 game going). At first, I might just experiment with short-stacking the game, but the play looked so bad (players were regularly calling pot-sized bets with bare eight-out draws, and entering pots for a raise preflop with hands like JJJT) from what I saw I should probably just man up and get ten buyins together for that game. I typically haven't put most of my live bankroll at risk for any one game, but the opportunity might just be too great to miss out on. I could easily envisage nights where I could buy in for $500 and walk out the door with 3K.

Opinions on this last issue are welcome.

A medley of PLO shenanigans, and some career musings

2009-05-13T20:50:00.000-07:00

I decided to play a chunk of pot-limit Omaha hands. I proceeded to lose. A lot. Variance can be unfriendly at times. A few examples below just to document how cruel poker can be.

I can take solace from the fact that I recently passed my bar exams (I got the good news right around the same time CK received similar good news about passing hers in Nevada). I have decided not to continue with criminal law and am in the job market. I hope to join a new firm in the near future. This puts this recent bad run of cards in perspective -- it's trivial compared with the importance of the interviews I'm lining up. Shifting away from litigation to solicitor's work is going to be a challenge, but it's something I really want to do after a lot of soul-searching.

The good: getting all-in with AAxx preflop and holding up

The bad: incorrectly folding a live draw when priced in

The ugly: not holding up with the overfull

Unfortunately for my online bankroll, the bad and ugly hands have vastly outnumbered the good ones. I didn't have the heart to post the hand where I got it in with nut straight and bottom two pair vs. lower straight and top two pair. Miracle 3-outer later and I lost yet another stack. PLO is wicked that way; when you're running bad the lost buyins can really accumulate quickly ... one has to ride it out and know when to quit.

Canucks vs. Hawks, Games Five and Six

2009-05-11T20:42:00.000-07:00

Frustrated.

That best describes how I feel after watching the Canucks lose a series they should have won. But every mistake they made seemingly led to a puck in their own net.

Roberto Luongo has a lot of soul-searching to do.

As time expired I was grimly transferring FTP funds to lightning36. Now we'll see an Original Six matchup in the Western Conference finals.

I'm willing to go double-or-nothing and take the Wings ...

Canucks vs. Hawks, Game Four

2009-05-07T20:51:00.001-07:00

Heartbreaking loss. Canucks were in control of the game and nursed a 1-0 lead for the last half of the game, stifling the Hawks and giving up no scoring chances.

With three minutes left one bad bounce + opportunistic Hawks forward in the slot = tie game.

Overtime: Canucks get glorious chance to win, fail to convert, and then another odd bounce led to a Hawks goal off a screen.

Series is now tied at two games apiece. Canucks need to generate more offense and keep bottling up the Hawks with their strong defence. It's a formula that should lead them to a series victory, but they can't afford to give up this many goals in relation to the number of quality chances the Hawks are getting. Luongo needs to make a herculean save here and there when the Hawks actually get those chances. He hasn't quite been on his game and it has snuck up and bit the Canucks at times in this series.

Cruelty, thy name is Omaha

2009-05-07T12:05:00.000-07:00

The turn and river were not kind to me. I hate losing a 500 BB pot with the second nuts in a 6-handed PLO game when only three players see the flop, but it would have been criminal not to get my stack in here with the second nuts (quads are impossible for the villain here, and I'm holding a ten). Oh well. Sometimes you lose when they miraculously show up with the improbable mortal nuts.

I wonder if re-shoving on the end is +EV. I thought so at the time because only three players saw the flop and villain having the last two tens in the deck is very gruesome compared to all the 33, 77, 97 combos he can show up with here. Opinions?

Canucks vs. Hawks, Game Three

2009-05-05T20:44:00.000-07:00

Canucks were full value for a 3-1 win in this game to reclaim home-ice advantage. Tremendous puck control (seriously, they turned the puck over maybe 3 times all game, which is just amazing!) + a flat Hawks team = a relatively low-risk victory. Luongo made key saves in 3rd period when he had to.

On to game four - Canucks have golden opportunity to lay the hammer down if they can repeat this performance.

Canucks vs. Hawks, Game Two

2009-05-02T22:15:00.000-07:00

Canucks storm out to 2-0 lead. Suffer an injury to a top-four blueliner, which messed up their defense pairings.

Canucks proceed to get hammered, giving up five consecutive goals to the resurgent Hawks (some of which were partially caused by some horrible officiating which led to numerous undeserved penalties).

Canucks end up losing 6-3.

It's a whole new series. The Canucks had better step it up and play a more consistent game. Luongo needs to step it up and steal a game.

Canucks vs. Hawks, Game One

2009-04-30T21:56:00.000-07:00

There's nothing like playoff hockey. Nothing. It is by far the most entertaining team sport when the intensity reaches a fever pitch and every game is a war. Basketball, football, baseball ... they all pale in comparison. And when my hometown Vancouver Canucks are marching along with a real chance at the Stanley Cup, which also just happens to be the most beautiful trophy of any major sports league in the world, you can be sure I live and die with my team.

I've got a blogger bet going on this series with lightning, a long-suffering Chicago Blackhawks fan, which only adds to the fun as the two teams meet in the second round of the NHL playoffs. So, as per usual, I got together with my dad for our playoff hockey routine of screaming at the TV screen as our Canucks were full value for a 3-0 lead after two periods over a young Hawks team that showed its lack of experience and was dominated, in large part due to their own undisciplined play which had them in the penalty box for long stretches. If you make mistakes like that, the Sedins et al. will make you pay.

However, I got more than a little nervous as the Hawks turned the tables in the third period to storm back to a 3-3 tie and it was looking as if the Canucks would improbably be stuck going into overtime in a game they had no business losing. But with under two minutes to go the Hawks comitted a costly turnover at the Canucks blueline and gave up a 4-1 outnumbered rush and Sami Salo made no mistake on the rebound to snap home the game-winner. An empty net goal quickly followed and the home team won 5-3.

Lightning has to hope that the talented young captain of the Hawks, Jonathan Toews, gets healthy and is able to perform up to his usual standard of play. He was noticeably invisible, except for taking a double minor penalty for high-sticking in the first period, and only played four shifts in the third period. The Hawks as a team are really going to have to improve their competitiveness over a full 60 minutes as the Canucks are only going to play better as they shake off the rust from a long nine-day layoff. I would bet a lot of money that the Canucks won't blow another three-goal lead in this series.

Overfull no good?

2009-04-29T22:29:00.001-07:00

Sometimes Omaha sets you up and there is nothing you can do about it. CK is a fan of nines; this is a data point in her favour.

Jackace no good?

2009-04-29T13:00:00.000-07:00

I got out and about last night and got to see some friends and we ended up playing a 6-handed NLHE freezeout. Was a lot of fun since I have had no opportunities to play live poker since December's trip to Las Vegas. Early on with 60BB effective stacks, I found myself in an interesting spot in the big blind with the suited jackace in diamonds in the big blind. The short-stacked player on my left (who had lost the early big pot to the player in the small blind with top pair versus a rivered straight) raised to 3x the blinds and the small blind called. I called.

The flop came down 7d2d4s. It was checked around to the raiser, who bet 12 BBs and was clearly committed to playing for his stack with only about 18 BBs behind. The small blind called. The pot was large and I read the small blind as weak with any two cards, and the other villain with an overpair to the board, probably nines or tens. So I opted to check-raise for my stack hoping to get a loose call from the small blind, expecting to have more than 33% pot equity, and if I forced her out I'd have approximately 15 outs twice with some dead money in the pot going headsup against the shorty. Sure enough, she snap-called and we all flipped our hands over.

The small blind had 8d4d for a pair and a baby flush draw.
The big blind had 9s9d for the overpair to the board.
I had the AdJd for the nut flush draw and two overcards.

Sadly, I bricked out and 99 held for the main pot and I transferred the remainder of my chips to the small blind.

When I got home, I ran an equity calculation and verified that 99 was about 38% to win, I was about 45% to win, and the 48dd was about 17% to win.

I was not all that happy with how I played the hand, though. I could have re-raised preflop. On the flop, I made a risky play and even though I had the best of it with a nice overlay to make my hand I put my stack at risk.

This was just another data point in the ongoing struggle to balance risk management and expected value in the early stages of a poker tournament. For comparison's sake, if I was playing an online poker tournament, I probably play this more aggressively preflop and I'd have much more hope that jackace would end up being the mortal nuts.

A proverb best sums up my thoughts

2009-04-24T15:04:00.000-07:00

It's always darkest before the dawn.

The last two weeks have been traumatic, but I like where I've arrived. I just received some very welcome good news, and I hope this is just the beginning of something great.

Can't Cry Anymore

2009-04-15T17:54:00.001-07:00

The last half of this Sheryl Crow song sums up my state of mind. (Ironically as real life is hammering me into the ground, poker is actually treating me well. I'd gladly go busto again online if it would help fix other problems in some kharmic way.)

Wouldn't it be good if
we could hop a flight to anywhere
So long to this life
So much for pretending
Bad luck's never-ending
It's never ending!

It could be worse
I could've missed my calling
Sometimes it hurts
But when you read the writing on the wall
Can't cry anymore

Wouldn't it be good if
we could hop a flight to anywhere
So long to this life
So much for pretending
Bad luck's never-ending
And too much time I've been spending
With my heart in my hands
waiting for time to come and mend it

I can't cry anymore
I can't cry anymore

Maybe the Canucks can win the Stanley Cup. That would be a nice distraction and something I could celebrate.

More proof that presto is gold

2009-04-12T20:45:00.000-07:00

It's not gold merely for this mostly silent blogger.

I wasn't in love with this hand on the flop, so I opted to call the half-pot lead in position since my opponent was able to bet here with high wraps (KJTx, JT8x, etc), aces, as well as middle set of nines (I could discount top set since I was holding a queen) and I wanted to re-evaluate on the turn and potentially run a bluff if he checked to me. Needless to say all the money went in on the turn as my opponent led out again and wasn't able to get away from middle set, to my great glee and profit.

An Easter Egg, s'il vous plait?

2009-04-08T23:56:00.000-07:00

Sadly, the 5 of clubs didn't appear on 7th street to let me scoop this pot. An unworthy rival showed up with it. Sniff. Half of the pot was pretty profitable, though. I was happy to fill up at the end as a consolation for missing my steel wheel.

BBM: I can do this!

2009-04-05T22:45:00.000-07:00

I couldn't resist Goat's offer to burn off some bankroll (especially after a 10 buyin downswing at the cash game tables).

Instead, my love of deepstack cash games -- oh wait, this is a tournament? -- led me to some fun times.

Synopsis:

1) I was unable to fold flopped top two pair vs. Bayne. Spiked a four-outer vs. bottom set of fours for an early suckout & resulting double. I played this one very badly. As soon as Bayne 4-bet shoved the T64 two spade flop I tried to figure out if he could have anything but bottom set. I made a mental shrug and made a bad call praying he had an overpair. Instead I get rewarded for my bad decision with some good luck from the RNG.

2) I cracked another blogger's aces and they coldn't get away postflop.

I open for 2.5 bbs in EP, I get re-raised to 8 bbs. Effective stacks are nearly 100 bbs deep. I flop trips, pocket aces decide to check-raise the turn ... one pair is no good. No doubt many will just scratch their heads at this one and call me unflattering names. My short answer is: I have position, implied odds with deep stacks and a pretty good idea of what my opponent has. Investing 5 more bbs is easy enough to do there when I have my opponent safely covered and I'll know where I stand postflop.

At various points all the way down to three-handed once the cash bubble bursts I have half the chips in play. This lets me play big-stack poker and I run like sucko.

3) I crack Jo's aces with queens (all-in preflop). Must resist feeling guilty because she has a BBT4 ToC seat and I don't.

4) My aces hold up vs. sevens that flop a open-ended straight draw. I dodge ten outs twice.

5) We get down to headsup and I am slightly ahead of Buddy in chips after he felts Hoy. He flops a straight vs. my flush + gutter and I don't get there. I grind back for a while and then run a 4bet bluff with the suited hammer vs. TT and go home in 2nd place.

Fun times. The three-handed play was pretty darn fun and I enjoyed it. I wish I didn't spew so badly once Buddy knocked Hoy out since the HU portion of the tournament was much shorter than it could have been, and I thought I had a good handle on how to grind out a win.

My busted draw beats your busted draw

2009-03-27T21:59:00.000-07:00

7-high was good. I felt sick on the river and checked behind, giving up in utter disbelief ... crubs didn't get there. As a staunch believer, I was stunned; I had put four bets in on the turn. Then the pot was pushed to me and I was incredulous ...

Yes, the small blind 3-bet preflop with 2d5d. Standard donkery in a 1/2 mixed cash game.

My range beats your range

2009-03-27T10:21:00.000-07:00

I figured this was a good example of a simple yet powerful post Gnome recently put up.

This 6-max HA table was ridiculously loose and aggressive so I opted to make a small re-raise out of the blinds rather than a full re-pot, because I didn't want to scare off my customer. I made a smaller-than-normal continuation bet on a fairly unthreatening flop and decided I was willing to felt here against my opponent's wide range. So when the board paired on the turn (a very good card for me) I opted to make another weak-looking turn bet (complete with pause to let my 15-second warning go off) hoping to induce a bluff-raise. Sure enough, villain took the bait and raised, and I have a trivially easy call to make. His bluff doesn't tell a coherent story: I can't put him on a trey or bottom set; he would have 4-bet with AA, so ... he either has me crushed with the overfull, he's drawing to a flush, he's got TPTK or he has complete air. I think he has the second-best hand way more often than not, so I happily call and discover that he's drawing to three outs. Fortunately for me, an ace didn't spike on the river.

Another possible scenario here would have been my opponent flat-calling the turn. If he then spiked a queen on the end, I'm fairly confident that my opponent would have called off his stack, too, because he would have persuaded himself that I only had a ten or a busted flush draw.

The other line I could have taken is to bet closer to full pot on the flop, and check the turn hoping to induce a bet from worse hands.

Mookie final table recap, redux

2009-03-25T22:38:00.000-07:00

6th place finish this time, still no ToC seat. More close but no cigar shenanigans. I lost several consecutive confrontations late, and folded a lot later on as I went completely dry on good hands, and was forced to play short-stacked at the final table, as my top-3 stack with 3 tables left slowly dwindled to 7/9. I misplayed my bustout hand in a blind-on-blind battle when I had a clear 3bet shove; instead I got fancy and decided to play JdTd in position to a flop. Unfortunately, villain's Qs4s outflopped me and we got all the money in on the turn on a JQ5K board, and I bricked.

#1 - The river min-raise for value

#2 - Trapping a dangerous opponent without overplaying TPTK

#3 - Getting lucky; also missed a value bet

Then some hands vs. the Doc ...

#4 - Turning the second nuts

#5 - Pot Control; Doc said he had a ten here

#6 - Four-flushing again, but this time I was best the whole way

#7 - Filling up in a 3-way spot

Villain #3 had 85.

#8 - Flopping the nuts in a re-raised pot; I was praying opponent had a big pair they couldn't get away from

Sadly from here on out I was completely card dead and my top-3 stack dwindled and dwindled. I then lost a big race vs. deuces, of all things,

#9 - 22 holds

and then faced this donktastic overshove with no fold equity (same opponent again). JTo held ... villain's perceptiveness of hand ranges was sorely lacking, but I don't expect many players to note how tightly I was playing preflop ...

#10 - J-high is gold preflop

Finally I make a mistake in a blind vs. blind battle and bust out in sixth.

#11 - Why didn't I shove preflop? Raise or fold!

Live by the sword, die by the sword

2009-03-24T20:30:00.000-07:00

Tonight's Skills Game was going smoothly. I was in the top ten most of the evening.

[Edited]

But then two things happened: I made a big flush and lost the maximum when the board paired.

And then I played this hand. 85ss was betrayed. I'm sure NB is in shock (and laughing his guts out).

This brilliantly-played hand brought to you by yours truly and Heffmike. I guess he figured he could "represent" an overpair and bluff me, when I was having none of it. Most sane players would fold an underpair on the flop when I make a 4-bet. But hey, sometimes you can chase down an 86/13 favourite. It's only limit hold'em, right?

The joke was on me, indeed. I shall pretend villain had a masterfully-played overpair to the board.

NB. A good case can be made for me to take an alternate line: I can call the flop bet and raise any turn card. This might get a lot of hands to fold even if, as here, opponent is sticky with bluff-catchers.

The power of snowmen

2009-03-24T13:28:00.000-07:00

Is magnified when you are holding the mighty 83ss. QueensUp knows. Numb knows, since I've also crippled him with 85ss (also spades). Spades are the boss suit even more than clubs. Too bad NB was seduced by his clearly inferior holding and decided to go to the felt against the mighty snowman taterlegs.

Seeing the Virtual Light, part one

2009-03-23T08:54:00.000-07:00

First in a long-overdue series.

The Education of a Poker Blogger

Stubbornness is a character trait that has held me back at the virtual felt of the poker world. Like most amateur poker players of a certain age, I began playing the game before it gained popularity on television, and soon realized that the online poker experience demands a new set of habits and skills. Slowly but surely, through painful trial and error, I have learned some lessons about how to cope with the pitfalls of online poker. I hope this primer will help fellow amateur poker players of the non-genius variety avoid similar mistakes and improve the state of their bankrolls. In Part One, I’ll discuss some basic tools to help you in online play; in Part Two I’ll introduce the concepts of self-control and poker study; in Part Three I’ll discuss experimenting with all of the major variants of poker at low stakes, and do a paired walkthrough of a successful tournament satellite and main event final table run; and finally in Part Four I’ll introduce some advanced concepts for consideration – reciprocity and the skill of quitting, as well as the need to start balancing your own game against tougher opponents as you move up in stakes (optimal versus exploitive play).

Incomplete Information
Never bring a sword to a gunfight – Indiana Jones

A good working definition of poker is that it is a game where players wager on outcomes with incomplete information. The more skilled poker player develops an advantage by gathering more information than his or her opponents do, and leverages that advantage by making better, more informed decisions during the game. In live play, you simply make a mental note to yourself as you size up a player. Online play requires considerably more effort, because you usually won’t be playing against a relatively small number of regular opponents. I like taking a lot of notes on players. This means that you need to develop a system to organize your notes and label them for future use. Thankfully, FTP has a useful colour-coding system wedded to its note-taking feature, which is even visible in the lobby area now as a guide for game selection purposes. Developing your own personal system of note-taking on your opponents is a must; this is exactly what you would do in a traditional live game and you must find methods to learn and record information about your online opponents and gain valuable information to select good games to play in. For example, you can colour the toughest players in red; you’ll want to avoid them if at all possible. Weak calling stations can be coded a soft blue; truly clueless players can be bright pink; aggressive yet flawed players can be dark purple, and so on. Refine and develop your own system and you will soon reap the rewards.

FTP also permits the use of third-party software programs which can help supplement your own notes on players with statistical data (I strongly suggest looking at the EULA for the list of permitted programs), and examine your own play for flaws. PokerTracker & Hold’Em Manager are the two most well-known poker databases, which can be used to track your own play and look over trends and tendencies. Sample size issues apply, however; don’t overreact by drawing firm conclusions over a sample of just 500 hands. As any baseball fan can tell you, a major league baseball player can do just about anything in 100 at-bats. A similar variance applies to the world of poker. To evaluate the true talent level or predict the expected future performance of a player requires much more data. It is invaluable when you are at the table with someone to be able to know about how often they make continuation bets, how often they will check-raise you on the flop, and so forth. Playing without this level of information is a significant handicap, and there is no good reason to be unarmed in the battle of wits.

Other People’s Money

Any poker player worth their salt should want rakeback and bonuses for playing at an online poker site -- I happen to play the majority of my online poker at FullTilt. This is a direct and tangible contribution to the health of your bankroll which will significantly help your bankroll. Don’t pass it up. Simply put, before you set up an account at an online poker site you should do some research to find an affiliate who will typically offer you somewhere in the neighbourhood of 25% of the rake you pay for all the hands you play online. This is your money and there is no reason not to get it back. You can also get a sign-up bonus (typically 20% of your initial deposit, to a maximum of $100) for opening a new account which will usually be paid out as you play out a certain number of hands.

Coming soon, part two.

Overqualified

2009-03-22T21:57:00.001-07:00

Scooping is the platinum rule for split pot games, smart players say, and something to always ask yourself about when employing good hand selection at the outset of any pot: am I playing for the whole pot, or just for half? If the answer is the latter, strongly consider folding.

This six-card straight flush is the definition of overqualified; sadly I bubbled this H.O.R.S.E. tourney despite this massive scoop in the mid-stages of the tourney. I like to call Stud8 the freeroll level in such tourneys.

BSG

2009-03-21T10:17:00.000-07:00

Series finale aired last night. It was a superb conclusion to the story arc, to my way of thinking. It answered some long-running questions definitively and left others open to the audience's interpretation. I especially liked the final scene. BSG's writers used elegantly powerful motifs and themes in the story and consistently invoked them judiciously without talking down to their audience.

Who knew that such a brilliant show could rise out of such inauspicious material as the original series, whose only stirring moments were generated by its bombastic opening musical score and Lorne Greene's rich voice doing the voice-over narration?